OK, they gave him a greater chance than I thought of winning the popular vote. I can’t tell if that applies to the polls-plus model which they actually seemed to believe, but that’s not the point. The point is, they had a model with a lot of uncertainty based on recognizing the world is complicated, they explicitly assigned a disturbing probability to the actual outcome, and they praised Trump’s state/Electoral College strategy for that reason.
538′s models are predictions of how the polls will change with time, so the closer to the election, the less difference there is between them, negligible in the final prediction. But if you want to see, look here. It shows predictions on the right. Near the bottom is “Trump wins popular vote.” On the left, you can choose between the three models and see that it doesn’t make a difference.
OK, they gave him a greater chance than I thought of winning the popular vote. I can’t tell if that applies to the polls-plus model which they actually seemed to believe, but that’s not the point. The point is, they had a model with a lot of uncertainty based on recognizing the world is complicated, they explicitly assigned a disturbing probability to the actual outcome, and they praised Trump’s state/Electoral College strategy for that reason.
538′s models are predictions of how the polls will change with time, so the closer to the election, the less difference there is between them, negligible in the final prediction. But if you want to see, look here. It shows predictions on the right. Near the bottom is “Trump wins popular vote.” On the left, you can choose between the three models and see that it doesn’t make a difference.