The emerging apocalyptic cult created by Ray Kurzweil, Dmitry Itskov and others wants to reschedule the “immortality” date from the 2000-2012 years predicted in the 1970′s to 2045. This shows that transhumanists just don’t want to learn from their predecessors’ follies. Just add another 30 years every generation, and never admit that the older transhumanists got the previous dates wrong.
Sure, optimism here is a standard problem. And of course, part of it is due to personal motivations. (Relevant SMBC). But this doesn’t change the fact that the technology has improved a lot in the last few years, and we have a much better understanding of aging than we did 30 or 40 years ago.
An American man Ray’s current age (65) has a probability of 22 out of 100 of dying in the next 10 years. Think of that as one trigger pull of Russian Roulette with a 5 chambered revolver.
In the particular case of Kurzweil, some of the nutrition claims border on pseudoscience, but I strongly suspect that he is healthier than the average American. I’d guess that he’s much more likely to survive the next 10 years than a random American male of his age. Even just his socioeconomic status by itself should push him above average life expectancy.
Sure, optimism here is a standard problem. And of course, part of it is due to personal motivations. (Relevant SMBC). But this doesn’t change the fact that the technology has improved a lot in the last few years, and we have a much better understanding of aging than we did 30 or 40 years ago.
In the particular case of Kurzweil, some of the nutrition claims border on pseudoscience, but I strongly suspect that he is healthier than the average American. I’d guess that he’s much more likely to survive the next 10 years than a random American male of his age. Even just his socioeconomic status by itself should push him above average life expectancy.