And while I feel like venting this morning, I’ve also had enough of these “immortality in 30 years” predictions. I give some reasons for that in my review of Cosmic Trigger:
The emerging apocalyptic cult created by Ray Kurzweil, Dmitry Itskov and others wants to reschedule the “immortality” date from the 2000-2012 years predicted in the 1970′s to 2045. This shows that transhumanists just don’t want to learn from their predecessors’ follies. Just add another 30 years every generation, and never admit that the older transhumanists got the previous dates wrong.
I wonder what Ray’s fans will say when he dies on schedule like everyone else. I looked up the actuarial tables and performed a calculation with the help of a spreadsheet. An American man Ray’s current age (65) has a probability of 22 out of 100 of dying in the next 10 years. Think of that as one trigger pull of Russian Roulette with a 5 chambered revolver.
The emerging apocalyptic cult created by Ray Kurzweil, Dmitry Itskov and others wants to reschedule the “immortality” date from the 2000-2012 years predicted in the 1970′s to 2045. This shows that transhumanists just don’t want to learn from their predecessors’ follies. Just add another 30 years every generation, and never admit that the older transhumanists got the previous dates wrong.
Sure, optimism here is a standard problem. And of course, part of it is due to personal motivations. (Relevant SMBC). But this doesn’t change the fact that the technology has improved a lot in the last few years, and we have a much better understanding of aging than we did 30 or 40 years ago.
An American man Ray’s current age (65) has a probability of 22 out of 100 of dying in the next 10 years. Think of that as one trigger pull of Russian Roulette with a 5 chambered revolver.
In the particular case of Kurzweil, some of the nutrition claims border on pseudoscience, but I strongly suspect that he is healthier than the average American. I’d guess that he’s much more likely to survive the next 10 years than a random American male of his age. Even just his socioeconomic status by itself should push him above average life expectancy.
I think you have a point about asymmetric friendships—trying to maintain some sort of social network for cryopreserved people.
However, your position is too extreme about testing longevity tech. Enough is known about aging that if people who use a method don’t show signs of aging for a decade, the tech has a lot of promise.
I’m not very optimistic about anti-aging tech being developed very soon. We (probably) don’t even know how to keep most people healthy into their nineties.
And while I feel like venting this morning, I’ve also had enough of these “immortality in 30 years” predictions. I give some reasons for that in my review of Cosmic Trigger:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/160354250/That-70-s-Transhumanism-A-Review-of-Cosmic-Trigger-Final-Secret-of-the-Illuminati
The emerging apocalyptic cult created by Ray Kurzweil, Dmitry Itskov and others wants to reschedule the “immortality” date from the 2000-2012 years predicted in the 1970′s to 2045. This shows that transhumanists just don’t want to learn from their predecessors’ follies. Just add another 30 years every generation, and never admit that the older transhumanists got the previous dates wrong.
I wonder what Ray’s fans will say when he dies on schedule like everyone else. I looked up the actuarial tables and performed a calculation with the help of a spreadsheet. An American man Ray’s current age (65) has a probability of 22 out of 100 of dying in the next 10 years. Think of that as one trigger pull of Russian Roulette with a 5 chambered revolver.
Sure, optimism here is a standard problem. And of course, part of it is due to personal motivations. (Relevant SMBC). But this doesn’t change the fact that the technology has improved a lot in the last few years, and we have a much better understanding of aging than we did 30 or 40 years ago.
In the particular case of Kurzweil, some of the nutrition claims border on pseudoscience, but I strongly suspect that he is healthier than the average American. I’d guess that he’s much more likely to survive the next 10 years than a random American male of his age. Even just his socioeconomic status by itself should push him above average life expectancy.
I think you have a point about asymmetric friendships—trying to maintain some sort of social network for cryopreserved people.
However, your position is too extreme about testing longevity tech. Enough is known about aging that if people who use a method don’t show signs of aging for a decade, the tech has a lot of promise.
I’m not very optimistic about anti-aging tech being developed very soon. We (probably) don’t even know how to keep most people healthy into their nineties.