I was waiting until the last minute to see if I would have a clear winner on what to submit. Unfortunately, I do not, since there are four posts on the Pareto frontier of karma and how much I think they have an important insight. In decreasing order of karma and increasing order of my opinion:
Also, why is my opinion anti-correlated with Karma?
Maybe, it is a selection effect where I post stuff that is either good content or a good explanation.
Or maybe important insights have a larger inferential gap.
Or maybe I like new insights and the old insights are better because they survived across time, but they are old to me so I don’t find them as exciting.
I just noticed that the first two posts were curated, and the second two were not, so maybe the only anti-correlation is between me and the Sunshine Regiment, but IIRC, most of the karma was pre-curration, and I posted Robustness to Scale and No Catastrophes at about the same time and was surprised to see a gap in the karma. (I would have predicted the other direction.)
I posted Robustness to Scale and No Catastrophes at about the same time and was surprised to see a gap in the karma
FWIW, I was someone who upvoted Robustness to Scale (and Sources of Intuitions, and Knowledge is Freedom), but did not upvote No Catastrophes.
I think the main reason was that I was skeptical of the advice given in No Catastrophes. People often talk about timelines in vague ways, and I agree that it’s often useful to get more specific. But I didn’t feel compelled by the case made in No Catastrophes for its preferred version of the question. Neither that one should always substitute a more precise question for the original, nor that if one wants to ask a more precise question, then this is the question to ask.
(Admittedly I didn’t think about it very long, and I wouldn’t be too surprised if further reflection caused me to change my mind, but at the time I just didn’t feel compelled to endorse with an upvote.)
Robustness (along with the other posts) does not give advice, but rather stakes out conceptual ground. That’s easier to endorse.
Are you entering this round BTW?
Yes.
I was waiting until the last minute to see if I would have a clear winner on what to submit. Unfortunately, I do not, since there are four posts on the Pareto frontier of karma and how much I think they have an important insight. In decreasing order of karma and increasing order of my opinion:
Robustness to Scale
Sources of Intuitions and Data on AGI
Don’t Condition on no Catastrophes
Knowledge is Freedom
Can I have you/other judges decide which post/subset of posts you think is best/want to put more signal towards, and consider that my entry?
Also, why is my opinion anti-correlated with Karma?
Maybe, it is a selection effect where I post stuff that is either good content or a good explanation.
Or maybe important insights have a larger inferential gap.
Or maybe I like new insights and the old insights are better because they survived across time, but they are old to me so I don’t find them as exciting.
Or maybe it is noise.
I just noticed that the first two posts were curated, and the second two were not, so maybe the only anti-correlation is between me and the Sunshine Regiment, but IIRC, most of the karma was pre-curration, and I posted Robustness to Scale and No Catastrophes at about the same time and was surprised to see a gap in the karma. (I would have predicted the other direction.)
FWIW, I was someone who upvoted Robustness to Scale (and Sources of Intuitions, and Knowledge is Freedom), but did not upvote No Catastrophes.
I think the main reason was that I was skeptical of the advice given in No Catastrophes. People often talk about timelines in vague ways, and I agree that it’s often useful to get more specific. But I didn’t feel compelled by the case made in No Catastrophes for its preferred version of the question. Neither that one should always substitute a more precise question for the original, nor that if one wants to ask a more precise question, then this is the question to ask.
(Admittedly I didn’t think about it very long, and I wouldn’t be too surprised if further reflection caused me to change my mind, but at the time I just didn’t feel compelled to endorse with an upvote.)
Robustness (along with the other posts) does not give advice, but rather stakes out conceptual ground. That’s easier to endorse.
We accept them all as your entry :-)