Personally, I feel that case 1 (“doesn’t work at all”) is much more probable
I’ve come to the opposite conclusion. Should we drag out quotes to compare evidence? Is your estimate predicated on just one or two strong arguments, and if so could I bother you to state them? The most probability mass to my estimate is contributed by Voldemort’s former reluctance to test the horcrux system and his prior blind spots as a rationalist when designing the system, and the oft-reinforced notion of Harry actually being a version of Tom Riddle, indistinguishable to a ‘powerful’ magical artifact (the Map), acting as an adult as an 11-years-old, “Riddles and Anwers”, the FF.net title, etc.
Speaking up prolongs Harry’s life until Voldemort does an experimental test.
The actual challenge may be to notice that the challenge isn’t well-posed, that the binary variable to be optimized (“live, if only a little longer”) is but a greedy solution probably suboptimal to reaching the actual goal. Transcend the teacher’s challenge, solve the actual problem, you know?
Speaking up gives up an easy win
Kind of important. Winning the test, losing the war.
3) Horcrux hijacking works, and there’s no workaround. It doesn’t matter if Harry speaks up or not.
I disagree, it matters: Voldemort goes back to the mirror, freezes Harry in time. Keeps him unconscious through his death eaters. He outclasses everyone else who’s left by orders of magnitude higher than he does Harry, from what we’ve seen. There are plenty of ways to simply cryonically freeze Harry then keep him on Death Eater guard until he made sure he closed the loopholes. Consider that he only learned he could test the system without danger to himself by using others as a proxy “test units” a few hours prior to current events.
PS: There’s, incidentally, as zen-like beauty to the solution: In order to survive, all you need to do is die.
Yeah, I was trying to help Harry survive the next minute with high probability, not win the war with high probability. The latter is a harder problem, and it’s not enough to have a plan that’s based on horcrux hijacking only. If I felt that horcrux hijacking might give me an actual easy win (as opposed to, say, Voldemort killing himself immediately and fighting me within the horcrux system), then I wouldn’t mention it, and say something else instead.
I amended the grandparent. Suppose for the sake of argument you agreed with my estimate of this being the proverbial “last, best hope”. Then giving away the one potentially game-changing advantage to barter for a globally insignificant “victory” would be the epitome of an overly greedy algorithm. Losing sight of the actual goal because an authority figure told you so, in a way not thinking for yourself beyond the task as stated.
Making that point sounds, on reflection, like exactly the type of thing I’d expect Eliezer to do. Do what I mean, not as I say.
as opposed to, say, Voldemort killing himself immediately and fighting me within the horcrux system
Ocupado. Assuming it was not, even Voldemort would have some sort of reaction latency to such an outside context problem. Assuming he reacted instantly, sounds like better chances than buying a few days of unconsciousness still.
‘If you cling to your life, you will lose it, and if you let your life go, you will save it.’ —Luke 17:33 (NLT, which seemed the nicest phrasing of those that I found on one list)
But this sort of sentiment is more in line with canon than with MoR. Of course, this particular instance gives it a twist that neither Rowling nor Luke intended.
I’ve come to the opposite conclusion. Should we drag out quotes to compare evidence? Is your estimate predicated on just one or two strong arguments, and if so could I bother you to state them? The most probability mass to my estimate is contributed by Voldemort’s former reluctance to test the horcrux system and his prior blind spots as a rationalist when designing the system, and the oft-reinforced notion of Harry actually being a version of Tom Riddle, indistinguishable to a ‘powerful’ magical artifact (the Map), acting as an adult as an 11-years-old, “Riddles and Anwers”, the FF.net title, etc.
The actual challenge may be to notice that the challenge isn’t well-posed, that the binary variable to be optimized (“live, if only a little longer”) is but a greedy solution probably suboptimal to reaching the actual goal. Transcend the teacher’s challenge, solve the actual problem, you know?
Kind of important. Winning the test, losing the war.
I disagree, it matters: Voldemort goes back to the mirror, freezes Harry in time. Keeps him unconscious through his death eaters. He outclasses everyone else who’s left by orders of magnitude higher than he does Harry, from what we’ve seen. There are plenty of ways to simply cryonically freeze Harry then keep him on Death Eater guard until he made sure he closed the loopholes. Consider that he only learned he could test the system without danger to himself by using others as a proxy “test units” a few hours prior to current events.
PS: There’s, incidentally, as zen-like beauty to the solution: In order to survive, all you need to do is die.
Yeah, I was trying to help Harry survive the next minute with high probability, not win the war with high probability. The latter is a harder problem, and it’s not enough to have a plan that’s based on horcrux hijacking only. If I felt that horcrux hijacking might give me an actual easy win (as opposed to, say, Voldemort killing himself immediately and fighting me within the horcrux system), then I wouldn’t mention it, and say something else instead.
I amended the grandparent. Suppose for the sake of argument you agreed with my estimate of this being the proverbial “last, best hope”. Then giving away the one potentially game-changing advantage to barter for a globally insignificant “victory” would be the epitome of an overly greedy algorithm. Losing sight of the actual goal because an authority figure told you so, in a way not thinking for yourself beyond the task as stated.
Making that point sounds, on reflection, like exactly the type of thing I’d expect Eliezer to do. Do what I mean, not as I say.
Ocupado. Assuming it was not, even Voldemort would have some sort of reaction latency to such an outside context problem. Assuming he reacted instantly, sounds like better chances than buying a few days of unconsciousness still.
‘If you cling to your life, you will lose it, and if you let your life go, you will save it.’ —Luke 17:33 (NLT, which seemed the nicest phrasing of those that I found on one list)
But this sort of sentiment is more in line with canon than with MoR. Of course, this particular instance gives it a twist that neither Rowling nor Luke intended.