For those of you who are interested, some of us folks from the SoCal LW meetups have started working on a project that seems related to this topic.
We’re working on building a fault tree analysis of existential risks with a particular focus on producing a detailed analysis of uFAI. I have no idea if our work will at all resemble the decision procedure SIAI used to prioritize their uFAI research, but it should at least form a framework for the broader community to discuss the issue. Qualitatively you could use the work discuss the possible failure modes that would lead to a uFAI scenario and quantitatively you can could use the framework and your own supplied probabilities (or aggregated probabilities from the community, domain experts, etc.) to crunch the numbers and/or compare uFAI to other posited existential risks.
At the moment, I’d like to find out generally what anyone else thinks of this project. If you have suggestions, resources or pointers to similar/overlapping work you want to share, that would be great, too.
This project sounds really interesting and useful.
It sounds a lot like a project that I tried and failed to get started. Or at least like part of that project. Though my project is so vague and broad that pretty much anything involving graphs/trees related to x-risks would seem “kinda like part of the project I was working on”
For those of you who are interested, some of us folks from the SoCal LW meetups have started working on a project that seems related to this topic.
We’re working on building a fault tree analysis of existential risks with a particular focus on producing a detailed analysis of uFAI. I have no idea if our work will at all resemble the decision procedure SIAI used to prioritize their uFAI research, but it should at least form a framework for the broader community to discuss the issue. Qualitatively you could use the work discuss the possible failure modes that would lead to a uFAI scenario and quantitatively you can could use the framework and your own supplied probabilities (or aggregated probabilities from the community, domain experts, etc.) to crunch the numbers and/or compare uFAI to other posited existential risks.
At the moment, I’d like to find out generally what anyone else thinks of this project. If you have suggestions, resources or pointers to similar/overlapping work you want to share, that would be great, too.
This project sounds really interesting and useful.
It sounds a lot like a project that I tried and failed to get started. Or at least like part of that project. Though my project is so vague and broad that pretty much anything involving graphs/trees related to x-risks would seem “kinda like part of the project I was working on”
Here’s a link to another comment about that project
I would like to hear more about your project.