The crux of the pause discussion is if other countries will join it.
My view about different countries:
China: may join moratorium, but can have AI capabilities in few years.
Russia: will not join. AI capabilities may be underestimated.
Iran: will not join. Likely no AI capabilities.
France: likely join, and has some AI capabilities
North Korea: will not join. AI capabilities are small but may be underestimated anyway.
The crux of the pause discussion is if other countries will join it.
My view about different countries:
China: may join moratorium, but can have AI capabilities in few years.
Russia: will not join. AI capabilities may be underestimated.
Iran: will not join. Likely no AI capabilities.
France: likely join, and has some AI capabilities
North Korea: will not join. AI capabilities are small but may be underestimated anyway.