This puts a new light on experts getting the predictions wrong. People are speculating that some of the California cases date back to January or even December. Similar stuff could have happened in New York. IMO, that’s the type of thing that makes sense to have outside one’s 95% confidence interval.
EDIT: OTOH it seems as though the infections only started in New York in February, and yet they spread to infect a large portion of the population there (tentative serology estimates say about 20% for the city). It doesn’t seem to be the case that the wide spread is explained by the infection in New York having started a lot earlier than expected. But something about this confuses me. If the infections reached the Bay area months earlier than they reached in New York, why is New York worse off? I guess one unusually thing about New York is how insanely little space they have inside restaurants and so on. Go to a California Starbucks and it’s awesome and comfortable. Go to a New York Starbucks (wasn’t it even invented there??) and you can’t even sit anywhere and there are walls all around you. Probably infections just spread way faster in that tightly crammed setting?
https://www.businessinsider.com/california-gov-newsom-orders-covid-19-autopsies-back-to-december-2020-4?r=US&IR=T
This puts a new light on experts getting the predictions wrong. People are speculating that some of the California cases date back to January or even December. Similar stuff could have happened in New York. IMO, that’s the type of thing that makes sense to have outside one’s 95% confidence interval.
EDIT: OTOH it seems as though the infections only started in New York in February, and yet they spread to infect a large portion of the population there (tentative serology estimates say about 20% for the city). It doesn’t seem to be the case that the wide spread is explained by the infection in New York having started a lot earlier than expected. But something about this confuses me. If the infections reached the Bay area months earlier than they reached in New York, why is New York worse off? I guess one unusually thing about New York is how insanely little space they have inside restaurants and so on. Go to a California Starbucks and it’s awesome and comfortable. Go to a New York Starbucks (wasn’t it even invented there??) and you can’t even sit anywhere and there are walls all around you. Probably infections just spread way faster in that tightly crammed setting?