Slow takeoff doesn’t imply absence of discontinuous takeoff a bit later, it just says that FOOM doesn’t happen right away and thus there is large AI impact (which is to say, things are happening fast) even pre-FOOM, if it ever happens.
I guess it helps remind everyone that both positions are relatively extreme compared to how most other people have been expecting that the future will go. But continuous vs discontinuous also seems pretty helpful.
“Slow takeoff” at this point is simply a misnomer.
Paul’s position should be called “Fast Takeoff” and Eliezer’s position should be called “Discontinuous Takeoff”.
Slow takeoff doesn’t imply absence of discontinuous takeoff a bit later, it just says that FOOM doesn’t happen right away and thus there is large AI impact (which is to say, things are happening fast) even pre-FOOM, if it ever happens.
Why not drop “Fast vs Slow” entirely and just use “continuous” vs. “discontinuous” takeoff to refer to the two ideas?
I guess it helps remind everyone that both positions are relatively extreme compared to how most other people have been expecting that the future will go. But continuous vs discontinuous also seems pretty helpful.