Thanks for setting up this problem. Initial remarks from considering biology data only:
There is a clear seasonality with
Winter= weeks 46-6
Spring=weeks 7-19
Summer=weeks 20-32
Fall=weeks 33-45
The biologists do not check Miresmouth Forests in the Fall, do not check Scorchsand Shores in the Winter, do not check The Lordesteppes in the Summer, and do not check Thunderwood Peaks in the Spring. There is also Devil’s Maw which they can check year-round.
For all the species the biologists have seen tracks for, they are consistent either with being in one or more locations year-round or migrating between two locations, one in winter or summer and the other for the rest of the year. Note that the information can have gaps due to the seasonal non-checking mentioned above, so it might be that they really aren’t all in these patterns, but I’m going with consistency.
The species seen are:
Downhanger (98 total). Migratory. Devil’s Maw, wintering in Thunderwood Peaks.
Northern Badger (77 total). Non-Migratory. Scorchsand Shores and Thunderwood Peaks.
Earthmover (71 total). Devil’s maw, summering in Scorchsand Shores.
Dull viper (65 total). Miresmouth Forests.
Sandcrawler (53 total). Scorchsand Shores, wintering in Miresmouth Forests.
Flamu (53 total). Non-Migratory. Scorchsand Shores and The Lordesteppes.
Cold Parrot (47 total). The Lordesteppes, summering in Thunderwood Peaks.
Cassowarrior (46 total). Scorchsand Shores, summering in Miresmouth Forests. Edit: incorrectly first wrote wintering here instead of summering, caught the mistake after finding Hunter data inconsistent with what I had written.
Flying Storm (45 total). Miresmouth Forests, wintering in The Lordesteppes.
Wrathrope (41 total). Scorchsand Shores, wintering in Devil’s Maw.
Peaksnake (41 total). Thunderwood Peaks.
Macrophant (35 total). The Lordesteppes. Edit: migratory, summering in Miresmouth Forests. This was clear in the bio data but I somehow missed it when summing up and detected the omission from the Hunter data.
Puffdrake (33 total). Thunderwood Peaks, summering in Miresmouth Forests.
Thunderclap Wyvern (31 total). The Lordesteppes.
Rimewinder (25 total). The Lordesteppes, wintering in Devil’s Maw.
Toxicala (19 total). Thunderwood Peaks, summering in The Lordesteppes. I’m going on a limb on this one (since the Lordesteppes has no summer data, their tracks have only actually been seen in Thunderwood Peaks). But, they definitely are not found in Thunderwood Peaks in the Summer so for consistency with the assumed pattern I think they must be in the Lordesteppes at that time.
todo: check Hunter data for consistency with this, plus learn more from the hunter data.
The biologists have not seen tracks for: Sliding Queen Shash, Bull-King of Heaven, Raging Windrider, Crow That Breaks the Sky, despite these being included in their notes.
Followup comparing to Hunter data:
Unfortunately, the Hunter data also does not have any Toxicala hauls in the Summer, so the hypothesis that they summer in The Lordesteppes is neither confirmed nor refuted. All data seems consistent with what I should have wrote above (not necessarily with what I actually wrote pre-editing).
The Hunter data also has info on:
Bull-King of Heaven (Summer in Thunderwood Peaks, only 1 data point).
Crow That Breaks The Sky (Summer in The Lordesteppes, Spring in Thunderwood Peaks, Fall in Miresmouth Forests, Winter in Scorchsand Shores). Hmm. This is a familiar pattern—looks like the biologists’ “ancient rules” are avoiding this monster for some reason.
Raging Windrider (Scorchsand Shores and Miresmouth Forests).
Sliding Queen Shash (Fall in Devil’s Maw, 2 data points).
Some additional remarks:
The available diet data is compatible with the following rule:
Herbivores migrate in the summer, Carnivores migrate in the winter, Omnivores don’t migrate and live in multiple zones, Scavengers don’t migrate and live in a single zone. Hmm: to check—do omnivores really not migrate, or do they migrate at a higher frequency than the seasons? (edit: falsified: year 1 week 45 Flamu seen in both Scorchsands and the Lordesteppes.)
Like abstractapplic, I would recommend going for Crows until we get one (but I see that’s not allowed by Jemist, so I’ll refine below). So Scorchsands on week 6 and Thunderwood on weeks 7-15 if still hunting Crows.
However, I’ll recommend Electro Chainmail rather than Ground Greaves for Crow hunting. Electro Chainmail has only a single instance of coming home with nothing during Crow season, better than any other armor type, and was used in 2 crow kills, tied for the best of any armor type.
I was on the fence between Windrider Crossbow and Stormblade, but settled on Windrider, same choice as abstractapplic, for the reason that the Stormblade+Electro Chainmail combo has the single case of coming home with nothing during crow season while wearing Electro Chainmail (though this is probably a coincidence).
After Crow hunting, it’ll be time to hunt Raging Windriders which apparently don’t leave footprints (so the biologists foolishly think they’re super rare, and they’re also large so the Hunters will like them). They are found in Scorchsands and Miresmouth. Miresmouth has much less other monsters in spring, increasing the chance of getting Windriders (but also chances of duplicates).
Raging Windriders are most commonly caught when wearing Flaming Faulds or Icemail (though likely coincidence) and Icemail has fewer cases of coming home with nothing in the Windrider territories. So I suggest Icemail. Though, in spring specifically Icemail looks worse (likely coincidence). I also note that the single Poison weapon in the game, Toxicala Blowgun, has only failed once in it’s admittedly small 13 uses. It’s also never brought down a Bull-king/Sliding Queen/Crow, suggesting maybe it isn’t used in difficult circumstances (but has brought down a Raging Windrider, with Icemail). The single fail was in Thunderwood in the spring, suggesting it might have lost to a Crow.
So, for hunting Raging Windriders, I’ll use Toxicala Blowgun and Icemail, and do it Miresmouth for better chance of a Windrider. I’ll also do it in weeks 8-10 to line up with when Windriders have most commonly actually been caught in Miresmouth (in case of sub-seasonal migration).
I expect much further progress could be made by going through all the failed hunts and trying to assess the most likely causes of each one, then seeing what we can infer from this when compared with successes, and then reassessing the causes of the fails, etc. However, I have been finding little motivation to do it because it looks like a lot of work, and still would be uncertain due to low N.
So, recommendation (unless I change it in the likely short time until the answer is posted):
Week 6: Scorchsand Shores with Windrider Crossbow and Electro Chainmail
Week 7: Thunderwood Peaks with Windrider Crossbow and Electro Chainmail
Weeks 8-10: Miresmouth Forests with Toxicala Blowgun and Icemail
Weeks 11-15: Thunderwood Peaks with Windrider Crossbow and Electro Chainmail
Thanks for setting up this problem. Initial remarks from considering biology data only:
There is a clear seasonality with
Winter= weeks 46-6
Spring=weeks 7-19
Summer=weeks 20-32
Fall=weeks 33-45
The biologists do not check Miresmouth Forests in the Fall, do not check Scorchsand Shores in the Winter, do not check The Lordesteppes in the Summer, and do not check Thunderwood Peaks in the Spring. There is also Devil’s Maw which they can check year-round.
For all the species the biologists have seen tracks for, they are consistent either with being in one or more locations year-round or migrating between two locations, one in winter or summer and the other for the rest of the year. Note that the information can have gaps due to the seasonal non-checking mentioned above, so it might be that they really aren’t all in these patterns, but I’m going with consistency.
The species seen are:
Downhanger (98 total). Migratory. Devil’s Maw, wintering in Thunderwood Peaks.
Northern Badger (77 total). Non-Migratory. Scorchsand Shores and Thunderwood Peaks.
Earthmover (71 total). Devil’s maw, summering in Scorchsand Shores.
Dull viper (65 total). Miresmouth Forests.
Sandcrawler (53 total). Scorchsand Shores, wintering in Miresmouth Forests.
Flamu (53 total). Non-Migratory. Scorchsand Shores and The Lordesteppes.
Cold Parrot (47 total). The Lordesteppes, summering in Thunderwood Peaks.
Cassowarrior (46 total). Scorchsand Shores, summering in Miresmouth Forests. Edit: incorrectly first wrote wintering here instead of summering, caught the mistake after finding Hunter data inconsistent with what I had written.
Flying Storm (45 total). Miresmouth Forests, wintering in The Lordesteppes.
Wrathrope (41 total). Scorchsand Shores, wintering in Devil’s Maw.
Peaksnake (41 total). Thunderwood Peaks.
Macrophant (35 total). The Lordesteppes. Edit: migratory, summering in Miresmouth Forests. This was clear in the bio data but I somehow missed it when summing up and detected the omission from the Hunter data.
Puffdrake (33 total). Thunderwood Peaks, summering in Miresmouth Forests.
Thunderclap Wyvern (31 total). The Lordesteppes.
Rimewinder (25 total). The Lordesteppes, wintering in Devil’s Maw.
Toxicala (19 total). Thunderwood Peaks, summering in The Lordesteppes. I’m going on a limb on this one (since the Lordesteppes has no summer data, their tracks have only actually been seen in Thunderwood Peaks). But, they definitely are not found in Thunderwood Peaks in the Summer so for consistency with the assumed pattern I think they must be in the Lordesteppes at that time.
todo: check Hunter data for consistency with this, plus learn more from the hunter data.
The biologists have not seen tracks for: Sliding Queen Shash, Bull-King of Heaven, Raging Windrider, Crow That Breaks the Sky, despite these being included in their notes.
Followup comparing to Hunter data:
Unfortunately, the Hunter data also does not have any Toxicala hauls in the Summer, so the hypothesis that they summer in The Lordesteppes is neither confirmed nor refuted. All data seems consistent with what I should have wrote above (not necessarily with what I actually wrote pre-editing).
The Hunter data also has info on:
Bull-King of Heaven (Summer in Thunderwood Peaks, only 1 data point).
Crow That Breaks The Sky (Summer in The Lordesteppes, Spring in Thunderwood Peaks, Fall in Miresmouth Forests, Winter in Scorchsand Shores). Hmm. This is a familiar pattern—looks like the biologists’ “ancient rules” are avoiding this monster for some reason.
Raging Windrider (Scorchsand Shores and Miresmouth Forests).
Sliding Queen Shash (Fall in Devil’s Maw, 2 data points).
Some additional remarks:
The available diet data is compatible with the following rule:
Herbivores migrate in the summer, Carnivores migrate in the winter, Omnivores don’t migrate and live in multiple zones, Scavengers don’t migrate and live in a single zone. Hmm: to check—do omnivores really not migrate, or do they migrate at a higher frequency than the seasons? (edit: falsified: year 1 week 45 Flamu seen in both Scorchsands and the Lordesteppes.)
Strategy thoughts at this point.
Like abstractapplic, I would recommend going for Crows until we get one (but I see that’s not allowed by Jemist, so I’ll refine below). So Scorchsands on week 6 and Thunderwood on weeks 7-15 if still hunting Crows.
However, I’ll recommend Electro Chainmail rather than Ground Greaves for Crow hunting. Electro Chainmail has only a single instance of coming home with nothing during Crow season, better than any other armor type, and was used in 2 crow kills, tied for the best of any armor type.
I was on the fence between Windrider Crossbow and Stormblade, but settled on Windrider, same choice as abstractapplic, for the reason that the Stormblade+Electro Chainmail combo has the single case of coming home with nothing during crow season while wearing Electro Chainmail (though this is probably a coincidence).
After Crow hunting, it’ll be time to hunt Raging Windriders which apparently don’t leave footprints (so the biologists foolishly think they’re super rare, and they’re also large so the Hunters will like them). They are found in Scorchsands and Miresmouth. Miresmouth has much less other monsters in spring, increasing the chance of getting Windriders (but also chances of duplicates).
Raging Windriders are most commonly caught when wearing Flaming Faulds or Icemail (though likely coincidence) and Icemail has fewer cases of coming home with nothing in the Windrider territories. So I suggest Icemail. Though, in spring specifically Icemail looks worse (likely coincidence). I also note that the single Poison weapon in the game, Toxicala Blowgun, has only failed once in it’s admittedly small 13 uses. It’s also never brought down a Bull-king/Sliding Queen/Crow, suggesting maybe it isn’t used in difficult circumstances (but has brought down a Raging Windrider, with Icemail). The single fail was in Thunderwood in the spring, suggesting it might have lost to a Crow.
So, for hunting Raging Windriders, I’ll use Toxicala Blowgun and Icemail, and do it Miresmouth for better chance of a Windrider. I’ll also do it in weeks 8-10 to line up with when Windriders have most commonly actually been caught in Miresmouth (in case of sub-seasonal migration).
I expect much further progress could be made by going through all the failed hunts and trying to assess the most likely causes of each one, then seeing what we can infer from this when compared with successes, and then reassessing the causes of the fails, etc. However, I have been finding little motivation to do it because it looks like a lot of work, and still would be uncertain due to low N.
So, recommendation (unless I change it in the likely short time until the answer is posted):
Week 6: Scorchsand Shores with Windrider Crossbow and Electro Chainmail
Week 7: Thunderwood Peaks with Windrider Crossbow and Electro Chainmail
Weeks 8-10: Miresmouth Forests with Toxicala Blowgun and Icemail
Weeks 11-15: Thunderwood Peaks with Windrider Crossbow and Electro Chainmail