The US had 35k new reported cases yesterday[0], so we’d have to have a spike of 3x the current numbers. That’s not impossible (the rate two weeks ago was a third of the current rate!), but it doesn’t seem 99% certain to me, especially as the percent vaccinated continues to go up, albeit at a slower rate.
The last time the US hit 100k was at the beginning of February, five months ago, when it was a lot less vaccinated, and the peak of the spike in April was 85k (with a 7-day average of 73k), so we’d have to have a worse spike than in April with higher vaccination rates.
The elephant in the room is of course the delta variant, but having a confidence of 99% seems to be overstating it in my opinion.
The best argument I can come up with against >100k cases:
Cases will skyrocket in different US regions at different times. They will skyrocket especially in places with lots of unvaccinated people, which will lead to spikes in deaths, which will lead to lockdowns. Those lockdowns will keep the case numbers down. The main reason why the UK sees high case numbers is because the government doesn’t think it’s a big deal as long as few people are dying. (I’m not saying that’s necessarily a bad way to look at it, given the economic costs of tighter restrictions.)
Even that story^ feels extremely implausible to me. I just don’t see governors of Southern states going into lockdowns when deaths start to spike again, especially because they won’t spike as much as they used to.
I’m not completely closing the door on 98%, but I think it’s more likely than not that I’d put 99% after a full day of serious thinking. As it is, if I had to bet on this right now without more thinking, I’d go with 98% while feeling a bit cowardly.
The US had 35k new reported cases yesterday[0], so we’d have to have a spike of 3x the current numbers. That’s not impossible (the rate two weeks ago was a third of the current rate!), but it doesn’t seem 99% certain to me, especially as the percent vaccinated continues to go up, albeit at a slower rate.
The last time the US hit 100k was at the beginning of February, five months ago, when it was a lot less vaccinated, and the peak of the spike in April was 85k (with a 7-day average of 73k), so we’d have to have a worse spike than in April with higher vaccination rates.
The elephant in the room is of course the delta variant, but having a confidence of 99% seems to be overstating it in my opinion.
[0]: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
The best argument I can come up with against >100k cases:
Cases will skyrocket in different US regions at different times. They will skyrocket especially in places with lots of unvaccinated people, which will lead to spikes in deaths, which will lead to lockdowns. Those lockdowns will keep the case numbers down. The main reason why the UK sees high case numbers is because the government doesn’t think it’s a big deal as long as few people are dying. (I’m not saying that’s necessarily a bad way to look at it, given the economic costs of tighter restrictions.)
Even that story^ feels extremely implausible to me. I just don’t see governors of Southern states going into lockdowns when deaths start to spike again, especially because they won’t spike as much as they used to.
I’m not completely closing the door on 98%, but I think it’s more likely than not that I’d put 99% after a full day of serious thinking. As it is, if I had to bet on this right now without more thinking, I’d go with 98% while feeling a bit cowardly.