Seems related:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kJrpCJshBoaY6YS4L/overconfidence?commentId=BEBA9Mr3PgnLZTvnx
Seems related:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kJrpCJshBoaY6YS4L/overconfidence?commentId=BEBA9Mr3PgnLZTvnx