(If someone actually does come up with a new teachable supertrick, so that civilization itself is about to take another lurching step forward, then you should expect to have a lot of fellow superstars by the time you’re done learning!)
Not necessarily. There are a lot of people who claim to have the next supertrick. I wouldn’t be surprised if the next actual supertrick isn’t as heavily promoted as the fakes. So it might be worthwhile to do research in areas that seem promising but neglected.
Bayesian statistics used to be pretty obscure, I hear.
But it’s a part of difficulty of communication. The first thing you need for successful communication is to get the attention of those you are trying to communicate with. Maybe they need to study for years in order to get the benefits, even if the process is reliable and they do get the benefits as a result. The success of an important advancement is not necessarily experimentally evident in the practitioners, while at the same time it can be both real and (not at all easily) explainable. Robin Hanson’s post on testing rationality is right on point.
There are many bits and pieces available, but few have the ability to get them all. Many techniques are published and easy to access, but still rarely used. (Insert your own example here or refer to checklists).
Then there is the whole point about determination and persistence or just the hunger to learn more. Buffet, Manger are probably decent in judging information and putting it to use. This can be easily communicated, but only applied by repeated exercise.
Not necessarily. There are a lot of people who claim to have the next supertrick. I wouldn’t be surprised if the next actual supertrick isn’t as heavily promoted as the fakes. So it might be worthwhile to do research in areas that seem promising but neglected.
Bayesian statistics used to be pretty obscure, I hear.
But it’s a part of difficulty of communication. The first thing you need for successful communication is to get the attention of those you are trying to communicate with. Maybe they need to study for years in order to get the benefits, even if the process is reliable and they do get the benefits as a result. The success of an important advancement is not necessarily experimentally evident in the practitioners, while at the same time it can be both real and (not at all easily) explainable. Robin Hanson’s post on testing rationality is right on point.
There are many bits and pieces available, but few have the ability to get them all. Many techniques are published and easy to access, but still rarely used. (Insert your own example here or refer to checklists). Then there is the whole point about determination and persistence or just the hunger to learn more. Buffet, Manger are probably decent in judging information and putting it to use. This can be easily communicated, but only applied by repeated exercise.