When I talk to people who are attempting to model Eliezer, or defer to Eliezer, or speaking out of their own model that’s heavily Eliezer-based, and I present this plan to them, and then they start thinking about pivotal acts, they do not say the thing Eliezer says above. I get the sense that they see “pivotal act” as some discrete, powerful, gameboard-flipping action taken at a particular point in time that changes x-risk from non-trivial to trivial, rather than as a referent to the much broader thing of “whatever ends the acute risk period”.
I’m confused. I think Eliezer means roughly that (alignment isn’t trivialises, we e.g. push back the deadline) and I wouldn’t go “ah yes, we’re doomed if things go according to Rohin’s projections”. If alignment does generalise easily, then your plan is fine and we don’t need a pivotal act. Now I don’t think it will be that easy, but that’s a different matter as to whetheror your agenda fails because it doesn’t do a gameboard flipping action.
I agree that the things I model people as believing are not in fact true. (And that not everyone in the categories I outlined believes those things.) I’m not sure if you’re saying anything more than that, if so, can you try saying it again with different words?
No, I guess not. I just put myself in the class of people “heavily influenced by Eliezer” and thought that I don’t model things like that so I wanted to push back a touch. Though I suppose I should have noticed I wasn’t being referred to when you said “defers to Eliezer”.
I’m confused. I think Eliezer means roughly that (alignment isn’t trivialises, we e.g. push back the deadline) and I wouldn’t go “ah yes, we’re doomed if things go according to Rohin’s projections”. If alignment does generalise easily, then your plan is fine and we don’t need a pivotal act. Now I don’t think it will be that easy, but that’s a different matter as to whetheror your agenda fails because it doesn’t do a gameboard flipping action.
I agree that the things I model people as believing are not in fact true. (And that not everyone in the categories I outlined believes those things.) I’m not sure if you’re saying anything more than that, if so, can you try saying it again with different words?
No, I guess not. I just put myself in the class of people “heavily influenced by Eliezer” and thought that I don’t model things like that so I wanted to push back a touch. Though I suppose I should have noticed I wasn’t being referred to when you said “defers to Eliezer”.