The secular cycles are based around Malthusian population growth, but we are now in a post-Malthusian regime where land is no longer the limiting resource. And the cycles seem to assume huge crises killing off 30% to 50% of the population
While I understand Malthus was very specific about the question of land and population, I always find it feels wrong to say “post-Malthusian” because it seems to imply we’re done with constraints entirely. By contrast, I feel like if we were bumping up against any constraint at all we should see something resembling Malthusian dynamics. The question is, what are the actual constraints now?
I’m not even convinced they need to be fixed. It seems perfectly reasonable to have a constraint that is itself dynamic; Malthus used land largely as a proxy for food supply, which we know is more variable than land because locusts and blight and weather. I’m inclined to look at things like energy production as the modern equivalent. I also wonder about that 30-50% number—it seems within reach for a crises to cause that much in losses to capital, for example.
What about constraints based on outputs rather than inputs? Greenhouse gas, say, or nitrogen?
While I understand Malthus was very specific about the question of land and population, I always find it feels wrong to say “post-Malthusian” because it seems to imply we’re done with constraints entirely. By contrast, I feel like if we were bumping up against any constraint at all we should see something resembling Malthusian dynamics. The question is, what are the actual constraints now?
I’m not even convinced they need to be fixed. It seems perfectly reasonable to have a constraint that is itself dynamic; Malthus used land largely as a proxy for food supply, which we know is more variable than land because locusts and blight and weather. I’m inclined to look at things like energy production as the modern equivalent. I also wonder about that 30-50% number—it seems within reach for a crises to cause that much in losses to capital, for example.
What about constraints based on outputs rather than inputs? Greenhouse gas, say, or nitrogen?