Even though I made a simple prediction of no consequence and said so, I still have a nagging worry that for some reason I wouldn’t be able to reveal it when the time comes (I lose the message, I’m unavailable, I made a mistake while copy pasting...) and it will look bad. I thought that was interesting to note.
I’d suggest writing the message as a plaintext file, then computing the hash of that file. That way, there’s no possible issue with copy/pasting. You still have to track the file, but that’s not too hard.
Yes, this seems interesting and important. Mentioning the scope of the statement can help, at least—in this case, you won’t really look bad if you fail to reveal it because you mentioned in advance that it’s trivial. But making sure you’ll be able to reveal it later is quite important if registering statements for nontrivial purposes. (But this seems doable without much effort.)
A fun, simple prediction just to participate. Will reveal on the 1st of June, 2022.
Hash: SHA-512
d619553d253654c65417c79c15dd98bc9959e06fca9791bc2129fbdcd5095a3b7ad4a6ed4e1753712487df4d1c5ac504e47f14153a8bcb1047022451fe95b628
My prediction was:
There will be less than 15 messages time-locked messages in this thread by the time this prediction is revealed (80% confidence)
And seems like that typo (“messages time-locked messages”) was there, but I can’t fix it because it would change the hash, lol.
Even though I made a simple prediction of no consequence and said so, I still have a nagging worry that for some reason I wouldn’t be able to reveal it when the time comes (I lose the message, I’m unavailable, I made a mistake while copy pasting...) and it will look bad. I thought that was interesting to note.
I’d suggest writing the message as a plaintext file, then computing the hash of that file. That way, there’s no possible issue with copy/pasting. You still have to track the file, but that’s not too hard.
Yes, this seems interesting and important. Mentioning the scope of the statement can help, at least—in this case, you won’t really look bad if you fail to reveal it because you mentioned in advance that it’s trivial. But making sure you’ll be able to reveal it later is quite important if registering statements for nontrivial purposes. (But this seems doable without much effort.)