Another, somewhat different reply occurs to me: Plausibly the reason why growth rates have been roughly steady for the past sixty years or so is that world population growth has slowed down (thanks to education, birth control, etc.). So on this view, there’s technological growth and there’s population growth, and combined they equal GWP growth, and combined they’ve been on a hyperbolic trajectory for most of history but recently are merely on an exponential trajectory thanks to faltering population growth.
If this story is right, then in order for GWP growth to accelerate again, we either need to boost population growth, or boost technological growth even more than usual, i.e. even more than was the case in previous periods of GWP acceleration like the industrial revolution or the agricultural revolution or, well, literally any period.
So, I’d conclude that it’s unlikely for GWP growth to accelerate again, absent specific reasons to think this time will be different. AGI is one such reason. The other answers people are giving are other reasons (though I don’t find them plausible.)
Another, somewhat different reply occurs to me: Plausibly the reason why growth rates have been roughly steady for the past sixty years or so is that world population growth has slowed down (thanks to education, birth control, etc.). So on this view, there’s technological growth and there’s population growth, and combined they equal GWP growth, and combined they’ve been on a hyperbolic trajectory for most of history but recently are merely on an exponential trajectory thanks to faltering population growth.
If this story is right, then in order for GWP growth to accelerate again, we either need to boost population growth, or boost technological growth even more than usual, i.e. even more than was the case in previous periods of GWP acceleration like the industrial revolution or the agricultural revolution or, well, literally any period.
So, I’d conclude that it’s unlikely for GWP growth to accelerate again, absent specific reasons to think this time will be different. AGI is one such reason. The other answers people are giving are other reasons (though I don’t find them plausible.)