I don’t feel like I have a graceful way to de-weight something when it turns out poorly in this fashion. I feel comfortable with unwinding an update I previously made, but in this case it amounts to just throwing out everything I have head-chunked as behavioral economics.
This feels wrong-ish, in the sense that it isn’t as though all the research was a complete fiction; a more correct operation would be to adjust my priors in such a way as to capture what the research actually shows, rather than what I thought it showed.
Trouble is, this is even more work than making the initial updates, because the whole failure mode is an inability to have confidence in any existing distillation of the ideas. This means tackling the relevant studies one at a time, with only a few newer review or meta papers to help.
On the upside, it occurs to me that I integrated virtually none of the mentioned results well enough that it met the anticipated experiences standard; maybe that means I never really updated in the first place and this costs nothing to lose.
How the heck do I update on this?
I don’t feel like I have a graceful way to de-weight something when it turns out poorly in this fashion. I feel comfortable with unwinding an update I previously made, but in this case it amounts to just throwing out everything I have head-chunked as behavioral economics.
This feels wrong-ish, in the sense that it isn’t as though all the research was a complete fiction; a more correct operation would be to adjust my priors in such a way as to capture what the research actually shows, rather than what I thought it showed.
Trouble is, this is even more work than making the initial updates, because the whole failure mode is an inability to have confidence in any existing distillation of the ideas. This means tackling the relevant studies one at a time, with only a few newer review or meta papers to help.
On the upside, it occurs to me that I integrated virtually none of the mentioned results well enough that it met the anticipated experiences standard; maybe that means I never really updated in the first place and this costs nothing to lose.