To what future self should my 2024 self defer, then? The one with E, E*, or E**?
To each with your current probability that that will be your future self. Take an expectation.
which is likeliest [...] defer to the likeliest
Any time you find yourself taking a point estimate and then doing further calculations with it, rather than multiplying out over all the possibilities, ask whether you should be doing the latter.
Hi! Thank you for the answer. Your answer is a little bit cryptic, though. Could you maybe provide some more detail or elaborate a bit on what you’re saying?
Are you in essence saying something like “take the weighted average of the three possibilities and my probabilities that they’ll occur” and use this to determine my expected future credence?
To each with your current probability that that will be your future self. Take an expectation.
Any time you find yourself taking a point estimate and then doing further calculations with it, rather than multiplying out over all the possibilities, ask whether you should be doing the latter.
cr2024 = P2024(E) * 0.5 + P2024(E*) * 0.3 + P2024(E**) * 0.7
Hi! Thank you for the answer. Your answer is a little bit cryptic, though. Could you maybe provide some more detail or elaborate a bit on what you’re saying?
Are you in essence saying something like “take the weighted average of the three possibilities and my probabilities that they’ll occur” and use this to determine my expected future credence?
Yes, exactly that.