Consider honestly the societal gain from the marginal published paper, particularly given that it gets 0 cites from other papers not by the same author.
So, I’d be curious what evidence you have that the average paper gets 0 citations from papers not by the same author across a wide variety of fields. But, in any event, the marginal return rate per a paper isn’t nearly as important as the marginal return rate per a paper divided by the cost of a paper. For many fields (like math), the average cost per a paper is tiny.
Consider honestly the societal gain from the marginal published paper, particularly given that it gets 0 cites from other papers not by the same author.
So, I’d be curious what evidence you have that the average paper gets 0 citations from papers not by the same author across a wide variety of fields.
Either I cannot write clearly or others cannot read clearly, because again and again in this thread people are responding to statements that are not what I wrote. The common factor is me, which makes me think it is my failure to write clearly, but then I look at the above. I referred to “the marginal published paper”, and even italicised the word marginal. JoshuaZ replies by asking whether I have evidence for my statement about “the average paper.” I don’t know what else to say at this point.
However, yes, I have plenty of evidence that the marginal paper across a wide variety of fields gets 0 citations, see e.g. Albarran et al. Note incidentally that there are some fields where the average paper gets no citations!
the marginal paper across a wide variety of fields gets 0 citations
I don’t think a marginal paper is a thing (marginal cost isn’t a type of cost, but represents a derivative of total cost). Do you mean that d(total citations)/d(number of papers) = 0?
Note incidentally that there are some fields where the average paper gets no citations!
This seems impossible, unless all papers get no citations, ie. no-one cites anyone but themselves. That actually happens?
Of course the marginal paper is a thing. If there were marginally less research funding, the research program cancelled wouldn’t be chosen at random, it would be the least promising one. We can’t be sure ex ante that that would be the least successful paper, but given that most fields have 20% or more of papers getting no citations at all, and other studies show that papers with very low citation counts are usually being cited by the same author, that’s good evidence.
Note that I did not say that papers, on average, get no citations. I said that the average (I.e. median) paper gets no citations.
f there were marginally less research funding, the research program cancelled wouldn’t be chosen at random, it would be the least promising one.
Weren’t you just a few posts ago talking about the problems of politics getting involved in funding decisions? But now you are convinced that in event of a budget cut it will be likely to go cut the least promising research? This seems slightly contradictory.
If there were marginally less research funding, the research program cancelled wouldn’t be chosen at random, it would be the least promising one.
Ah, right, we’re on the same page now. Your argument, however, assumes that a) fruitfulness of research is quite highly predictable in advance, and b) available funds are rationally allocated based on these predictions so as to maximise fruitful research (or the proxy, citations). Insofar as the reality diverges from these assumptions, the expected number of citations of the “marginal” paper is going to approach the average number.
Note that I did not say that papers, on average, get no citations. I said that the average (I.e. median) paper gets no citations.
Oh, by “average” I assumed you meant the arithmetic mean, since that is the usual statistic.
Sorry, in this context, I switched talking about the marginal to talking about the average. You shouldn’t take my own poor thinking as a sign of anything, although in this context, it is possible that I was without thinking trying to steel man your argument, since when one is talking about completely eliminating academic funding, the average rate matters much more than the marginal rate. But the citation you’ve given is convincing that the marginal rate is generally quite low across a variety of fields.
[I]t is possible that I was without thinking trying to steel man your argument, since when one is talking about completely eliminating academic funding...
Who exactly is arguing for completely eliminating academic funding? If you mean me, I hope you can provide a supporting quote.
Who exactly is arguing for completely eliminating academic funding?
Well, various statements you’ve made seemed to imply that, such as your claim that burning down the Library of Alexandria had the advantage that:
Academics now forced to get useful job and contribute to society
and you then stated
The point is that some academics are useful and some are not; there is no market process that forces them to be so. It may be that some of the academics are able to continue doing exactly what they were doing, just for a private employer.
If you prefer, to be explicit, you seem to be arguing that all goverment funding of academics should be cut. Is that an accurate assessment? In that context, given that that’s the vast majority of academic research, the relevant difference is still the average not the marginal rate of return.
So, I’d be curious what evidence you have that the average paper gets 0 citations from papers not by the same author across a wide variety of fields. But, in any event, the marginal return rate per a paper isn’t nearly as important as the marginal return rate per a paper divided by the cost of a paper. For many fields (like math), the average cost per a paper is tiny.
Either I cannot write clearly or others cannot read clearly, because again and again in this thread people are responding to statements that are not what I wrote. The common factor is me, which makes me think it is my failure to write clearly, but then I look at the above. I referred to “the marginal published paper”, and even italicised the word marginal. JoshuaZ replies by asking whether I have evidence for my statement about “the average paper.” I don’t know what else to say at this point.
However, yes, I have plenty of evidence that the marginal paper across a wide variety of fields gets 0 citations, see e.g. Albarran et al. Note incidentally that there are some fields where the average paper gets no citations!
I don’t think a marginal paper is a thing (marginal cost isn’t a type of cost, but represents a derivative of total cost). Do you mean that
d(total citations)/d(number of papers) = 0?This seems impossible, unless all papers get no citations, ie. no-one cites anyone but themselves. That actually happens?
Of course the marginal paper is a thing. If there were marginally less research funding, the research program cancelled wouldn’t be chosen at random, it would be the least promising one. We can’t be sure ex ante that that would be the least successful paper, but given that most fields have 20% or more of papers getting no citations at all, and other studies show that papers with very low citation counts are usually being cited by the same author, that’s good evidence.
Note that I did not say that papers, on average, get no citations. I said that the average (I.e. median) paper gets no citations.
Weren’t you just a few posts ago talking about the problems of politics getting involved in funding decisions? But now you are convinced that in event of a budget cut it will be likely to go cut the least promising research? This seems slightly contradictory.
Would it? I fear it would be the one whose participants are worst at ‘politics’.
Ah, right, we’re on the same page now. Your argument, however, assumes that a) fruitfulness of research is quite highly predictable in advance, and b) available funds are rationally allocated based on these predictions so as to maximise fruitful research (or the proxy, citations). Insofar as the reality diverges from these assumptions, the expected number of citations of the “marginal” paper is going to approach the average number.
Oh, by “average” I assumed you meant the arithmetic mean, since that is the usual statistic.
Sorry, in this context, I switched talking about the marginal to talking about the average. You shouldn’t take my own poor thinking as a sign of anything, although in this context, it is possible that I was without thinking trying to steel man your argument, since when one is talking about completely eliminating academic funding, the average rate matters much more than the marginal rate. But the citation you’ve given is convincing that the marginal rate is generally quite low across a variety of fields.
Who exactly is arguing for completely eliminating academic funding? If you mean me, I hope you can provide a supporting quote.
Well, various statements you’ve made seemed to imply that, such as your claim that burning down the Library of Alexandria had the advantage that:
and you then stated
If you prefer, to be explicit, you seem to be arguing that all goverment funding of academics should be cut. Is that an accurate assessment? In that context, given that that’s the vast majority of academic research, the relevant difference is still the average not the marginal rate of return.