Gwern suggested that, if it were possible for civilization to have developed when our species had a lower IQ, then we’d still be dealing with the same problems, but we’d have a lower IQ with which to tackle them. Or, to put it another way, it is unsurprising that living in a civilization has posed problems that our species finds difficult to tackle, because if we were capable of solving such problems easily, we’d probably also have been capable of developing civilization earlier than we did.
And to put it yet another way, by something like a Peter Principle (“people are promoted to their level of incompetence”), we create problems up to our capacity to deal with them. However stupid or intelligent we are, we will always be dealing with problems at the edge of what we can deal with.
This, btw, makes me sceptical about predictions of radical increases in intelligence (of us or of our creations) bringing about paradise.
we create problems up to our capacity to deal with them. However stupid or intelligent we are, we will always be dealing with problems at the edge of what we can deal with.
Were you thinking of any specific societal problems when you wrote this?
Most societal problems of today had smaller scale analogues in the past. Foreign relations, warfare, and internal security should have existed at least as long as there have been city states. Unsustainable development and overpopulation relative to available resources are nothing new; they were even cited in the main post as contributors to Ur’s downfall. Likewise, public sickness, waste management, violent and coercive crime, inadequate housing, and unfavorable economic climates would all be familiar to, say, the Indus Valley Civilization. A few examples of modern anthropogenic risks: climate change, unfriendly intelligence explosion, nuclear warfare, nanotech. And then of course negentropy opportunity cost is an old problem we didn’t create, we just didn’t know about it back in the day.
In short, smart societies make a few new difficult problems, but mostly make larger societies which have larger versions of the old problems.
This, btw, makes me sceptical about predictions of radical increases in intelligence (of us or of our creations) bringing about paradise.
To the extent that a boring place probably isn’t paradise, sure. But a world in which almost all of your effort is spent tussling with other minds at your level seems much better than, say, the present world, where much of your effort is spent on the annoyances of corporeal existence.
Yes, things can get better. Better than we can barely imagine. But by that standard, we’re already living in the paradise of the past, and it’s not exactly happy ever after, is it?
Do you include in the scope of that ‘fix’ dealing with problems associated with population, promotion, ambition, recidivist criminals who (after serving a few terms in jail) have time to learn to be good at crime, etc?
How does that differ from saying “Given unlimited time to fix all social problems, society will eventually become a paradise” or “The root problem with current society is that we have not yet had sufficient time to fix all the other problems with it”? Couldn’t the same be said about any imperfect society? I don’t see how it is praise for the state of our current society versus previous societies.
And to put it yet another way, by something like a Peter Principle (“people are promoted to their level of incompetence”), we create problems up to our capacity to deal with them. However stupid or intelligent we are, we will always be dealing with problems at the edge of what we can deal with.
This, btw, makes me sceptical about predictions of radical increases in intelligence (of us or of our creations) bringing about paradise.
Were you thinking of any specific societal problems when you wrote this?
Most societal problems of today had smaller scale analogues in the past. Foreign relations, warfare, and internal security should have existed at least as long as there have been city states. Unsustainable development and overpopulation relative to available resources are nothing new; they were even cited in the main post as contributors to Ur’s downfall. Likewise, public sickness, waste management, violent and coercive crime, inadequate housing, and unfavorable economic climates would all be familiar to, say, the Indus Valley Civilization. A few examples of modern anthropogenic risks: climate change, unfriendly intelligence explosion, nuclear warfare, nanotech. And then of course negentropy opportunity cost is an old problem we didn’t create, we just didn’t know about it back in the day.
In short, smart societies make a few new difficult problems, but mostly make larger societies which have larger versions of the old problems.
To the extent that a boring place probably isn’t paradise, sure. But a world in which almost all of your effort is spent tussling with other minds at your level seems much better than, say, the present world, where much of your effort is spent on the annoyances of corporeal existence.
Yes, things can get better. Better than we can barely imagine. But by that standard, we’re already living in the paradise of the past, and it’s not exactly happy ever after, is it?
It’s ok! Fix death and I’d be cool with it.
Do you include in the scope of that ‘fix’ dealing with problems associated with population, promotion, ambition, recidivist criminals who (after serving a few terms in jail) have time to learn to be good at crime, etc?
We would, as they say, have as long as we liked to sort out those sorts of issues.
How does that differ from saying “Given unlimited time to fix all social problems, society will eventually become a paradise” or “The root problem with current society is that we have not yet had sufficient time to fix all the other problems with it”? Couldn’t the same be said about any imperfect society? I don’t see how it is praise for the state of our current society versus previous societies.