One place where evidential decision theory gets used is with prediction markets. For instance here people are deciding between supporting or opposing a policy based on what happens when you condition on that policy being implemented. But this decision-making procedure is potentially flawed, for reasons that CDT can explain.
Arguably, the key problem is that the prediction market conditions on a different decision question (what do politicians choose?) than they are used to control (what policy should I support?). But there seems to be a subagent relationship between the two decisions, so this suggests something subtle happens when comparing CDT and EDT for subagent systems.
I haven’t seen this interaction explored by anyone, and I confused myself a bunch when I tried to reason it out. But this feels like one of the biggest obstacles I have to accepting EDT=CDT.
One place where evidential decision theory gets used is with prediction markets. For instance here people are deciding between supporting or opposing a policy based on what happens when you condition on that policy being implemented. But this decision-making procedure is potentially flawed, for reasons that CDT can explain.
Arguably, the key problem is that the prediction market conditions on a different decision question (what do politicians choose?) than they are used to control (what policy should I support?). But there seems to be a subagent relationship between the two decisions, so this suggests something subtle happens when comparing CDT and EDT for subagent systems.
I haven’t seen this interaction explored by anyone, and I confused myself a bunch when I tried to reason it out. But this feels like one of the biggest obstacles I have to accepting EDT=CDT.