China keeps daily cases under 50 per million through 2022: ?% → 40%.
[...] We’ll know if this is failing,
How do you know that we’ll know if this is failing?
I’ll go with 60% that by December 31st 2022 we’ll have no credible reports (or even the OWID feed) say China had any day with 50+ cases per million, at least this puts an upper bound on the resolution.
This is the sum of three things:
Even if >50/mil, Information doesn’t get out, not by December 31st 2022 at least
China can downplay things for a week or two but this fails quickly in the face of exponentials. If they hit 70k and pretend they didn’t, they then hit 200k and then 400k and then can’t pretend.
I understand you say these are large numbers, but I don’t know what signal we can expect to see if they can’t contain the outbreak. Number of travelers from China that need isolating?
Or do you expect that the number of deaths will be considerably high?
How do you know that we’ll know if this is failing?
I’ll go with 60% that by December 31st 2022 we’ll have no credible reports (or even the OWID feed) say China had any day with 50+ cases per million, at least this puts an upper bound on the resolution.
This is the sum of three things:
Even if >50/mil, Information doesn’t get out, not by December 31st 2022 at least
China manages to mitigate effectively
China is already mostly immune. See this comment thread on ACX
Last one has low probability, certainly lower than #1, but it’s still there.
But I’m curious, what makes you think we’ll know if China will fail to contain Omicron?
Link didn’t work.
China can downplay things for a week or two but this fails quickly in the face of exponentials. If they hit 70k and pretend they didn’t, they then hit 200k and then 400k and then can’t pretend.
I was doubtful, now I stand corrected.
Oops, link fixed, here it is again for convenience.
I understand you say these are large numbers, but I don’t know what signal we can expect to see if they can’t contain the outbreak. Number of travelers from China that need isolating?
Or do you expect that the number of deaths will be considerably high?
70,000 is a large number, and hard to hide.