It’s less than that, you don’t know that you are real and not the hypothetical. If you are the hypothetical, paying up is useful for the real one.
This means that even if you are the real one (which you don’t know), you should pay up, or else the hypothetical you wouldn’t. Winning behavior/policy is the best map from what you observe/know to decisions, and some (or all) of those observations/knowledge never occur, or even never could occur.
It’s less than that, you don’t know that you are real and not the hypothetical. If you are the hypothetical, paying up is useful for the real one.
This means that even if you are the real one (which you don’t know), you should pay up, or else the hypothetical you wouldn’t. Winning behavior/policy is the best map from what you observe/know to decisions, and some (or all) of those observations/knowledge never occur, or even never could occur.