I’m talking about people infected in the next 2 weeks. I don’t see how that is an answer unless we have already achieved herd immunity. And I’m skeptical that you can call the peak that precisely.
So what? There are individuals that have reached 100% infection. I’m talking about America, which is currently undergoing an epidemic. I’m predicting that the past 2 weeks of behavior will continue for the next two weeks. To predict otherwise on the grounds of herd immunity is to claim that it has been achieved just this week. Whereas, Qatar has steady levels, suggesting herd immunity in the current environment.
Qatar is believed to have reached more than half infected. Their median age is 30, however, which significantly mitigates the associated morbidity and mortality, as does the over 60 population being 2% of them compared to like 10% of the United States.
Same research finds only ~50 probable reinfections in a cohort of hundreds of thousands of followed individuals and all but one non-hospitalized and that one only out of caution.
Hmm, that paper references another paper for its >50% infected claim but the paper it references only has a 24% seropositivity rate. It does suggest 53.5% infection but that’s based on a naive SIR model which I don’t expect to give particularly accurate results for that kind of thing.
Good to see a detailed examination of reinfections though—that’s the kind of thing I’ve been hoping to see.
Another, more recent, paper does find 66% seropositivity in migrant workers (who make up 60% of the population). However the sample seems to have been selected strongly for people who had had Covid as 20% of the sample had already had positive PCR results, compared to ~4% of the total population.
I plan to address this next week in more detail but it’s because I think IFR is low enough that we run into herd immunity first.
I’m talking about people infected in the next 2 weeks. I don’t see how that is an answer unless we have already achieved herd immunity. And I’m skeptical that you can call the peak that precisely.
There are small nations that have reached 60% infection...
So what? There are individuals that have reached 100% infection. I’m talking about America, which is currently undergoing an epidemic. I’m predicting that the past 2 weeks of behavior will continue for the next two weeks. To predict otherwise on the grounds of herd immunity is to claim that it has been achieved just this week. Whereas, Qatar has steady levels, suggesting herd immunity in the current environment.
Examples? This may update my expectations a fair bit.
Qatar is believed to have reached more than half infected. Their median age is 30, however, which significantly mitigates the associated morbidity and mortality, as does the over 60 population being 2% of them compared to like 10% of the United States.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.24.20179457v2
Same research finds only ~50 probable reinfections in a cohort of hundreds of thousands of followed individuals and all but one non-hospitalized and that one only out of caution.
Hmm, that paper references another paper for its >50% infected claim but the paper it references only has a 24% seropositivity rate. It does suggest 53.5% infection but that’s based on a naive SIR model which I don’t expect to give particularly accurate results for that kind of thing.
Good to see a detailed examination of reinfections though—that’s the kind of thing I’ve been hoping to see.
Another, more recent, paper does find 66% seropositivity in migrant workers (who make up 60% of the population). However the sample seems to have been selected strongly for people who had had Covid as 20% of the sample had already had positive PCR results, compared to ~4% of the total population.
User Annapurna posted a webpage that tracks Covid-19 reinfections, in case you hadn’t seen it.