I don’t know that I’ve seen the original bet anywhere, but Eliezer’s specific claim is that the world will end by 2030 Jan 01. Here’s what I could find quickly on the topic:
Yes, he did make a bet at approximately even odds for that date.
The problem is that even if you took it on epistemic face value as a prediction of probability greater than 50%, survival past 2030 doesn’t mean that Eliezer was wrong, just that we aren’t in his worst-case half of scenarios. He does have more crisp predictions, but not about dates.
I don’t know that I’ve seen the original bet anywhere, but Eliezer’s specific claim is that the world will end by 2030 Jan 01. Here’s what I could find quickly on the topic:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZEgQGAjQm5rTAnGuM/beware-boasting-about-non-existent-forecasting-track-records#CianX64pyMcrQKmtF
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X3p8mxE5dHYDZNxCm/a-concrete-bet-offer-to-those-with-short-ai-timelines#2p7FqFsi8e9ePYs3q
Yes, he did make a bet at approximately even odds for that date.
The problem is that even if you took it on epistemic face value as a prediction of probability greater than 50%, survival past 2030 doesn’t mean that Eliezer was wrong, just that we aren’t in his worst-case half of scenarios. He does have more crisp predictions, but not about dates.