Yes, he did make a bet at approximately even odds for that date.
The problem is that even if you took it on epistemic face value as a prediction of probability greater than 50%, survival past 2030 doesn’t mean that Eliezer was wrong, just that we aren’t in his worst-case half of scenarios. He does have more crisp predictions, but not about dates.
Yes, he did make a bet at approximately even odds for that date.
The problem is that even if you took it on epistemic face value as a prediction of probability greater than 50%, survival past 2030 doesn’t mean that Eliezer was wrong, just that we aren’t in his worst-case half of scenarios. He does have more crisp predictions, but not about dates.