Even given the relative smallness of EY’s beliefs in the sequences/EY’s beliefs in general, it’s still rather unlikely.
It is more reasonable that you have no errors in a smaller sampling size of your beliefs than in a larger sampling size, but the probability of there being at least one error increases with the size of the beliefs being sampled.
I don’t know that you and JoshuaZ are really disagreeing with one another so much as you are taking alternate perspectives on the same set of data.
It is more reasonable that you have no errors in a smaller sampling size of your beliefs than in a larger sampling size, but the probability of there being at least one error increases with the size of the beliefs being sampled.
I don’t know that you and JoshuaZ are really disagreeing with one another so much as you are taking alternate perspectives on the same set of data.