I have a not at all short list of things I think Eliezer is wrong on but this seems incorrect. I agree that there’s absolutely no way that Eliezer is right about everything. But everything in the Sequences is a (small) proper subset of everything Eliezer believes. So the notion that everything he has said here is correct isn’t as unreasonable.(That said, there are quite a few issues with things Eliezer has said here including things in the Sequences.)
I think it really is rather unreasonable. Take a human, no matter how smart or rational, and have them write one blog post per day for several years, much of which is on debated topics, and I would be shocked if nothing that they said turned out to be false. Even given the relative smallness of EY’s beliefs in the sequences/EY’s beliefs in general, it’s still rather unlikely. Every one of his mistakes would have had to have been regarding something other than what he posted about, which is a bit much for my inner skeptic.
Even given the relative smallness of EY’s beliefs in the sequences/EY’s beliefs in general, it’s still rather unlikely.
It is more reasonable that you have no errors in a smaller sampling size of your beliefs than in a larger sampling size, but the probability of there being at least one error increases with the size of the beliefs being sampled.
I don’t know that you and JoshuaZ are really disagreeing with one another so much as you are taking alternate perspectives on the same set of data.
I think it really is rather unreasonable. Take a human, no matter how smart or rational, and have them write one blog post per day for several years, much of which is on debated topics, and I would be shocked if nothing that they said turned out to be false. Even given the relative smallness of EY’s beliefs in the sequences/EY’s beliefs in general, it’s still rather unlikely. Every one of his mistakes would have had to have been regarding something other than what he posted about, which is a bit much for my inner skeptic.
It is more reasonable that you have no errors in a smaller sampling size of your beliefs than in a larger sampling size, but the probability of there being at least one error increases with the size of the beliefs being sampled.
I don’t know that you and JoshuaZ are really disagreeing with one another so much as you are taking alternate perspectives on the same set of data.