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[Question] Fore­cast­ing Thread: AI Timelines

Amandango, Daniel Kokotajlo and Ben Pace
Aug 22, 2020, 2:33 AM
135 points
98 comments2 min readLW link

2018 Re­view: Vot­ing Re­sults!

Ben PaceJan 24, 2020, 2:00 AM
135 points
59 comments6 min readLW link

Pos­si­ble take­aways from the coro­n­avirus pan­demic for slow AI takeoff

VikaMay 31, 2020, 5:51 PM
135 points
36 comments3 min readLW link1 review

How to eval­u­ate (50%) predictions

Rafael HarthApr 10, 2020, 5:12 PM
134 points
50 comments9 min readLW link

[Question] Will COVID-19 sur­vivors suffer last­ing dis­abil­ity at a high rate?

jimrandomhFeb 11, 2020, 8:23 PM
134 points
11 comments1 min readLW link

Mes­sage Length

Zack_M_DavisOct 20, 2020, 5:52 AM
134 points
25 comments12 min readLW link

A non-mys­ti­cal ex­pla­na­tion of in­sight med­i­ta­tion and the three char­ac­ter­is­tics of ex­is­tence: in­tro­duc­tion and preamble

Kaj_SotalaMay 5, 2020, 7:09 PM
134 points
40 comments12 min readLW link

Luna Love­g­ood and the Cham­ber of Se­crets—Part 3

lsusrDec 1, 2020, 12:43 PM
133 points
11 comments2 min readLW link

Philos­o­phy in the Dark­est Timeline: Ba­sics of the Evolu­tion of Meaning

Zack_M_DavisJun 7, 2020, 7:52 AM
132 points
16 comments14 min readLW link

Nu­clear war is un­likely to cause hu­man extinction

Jeffrey LadishNov 7, 2020, 5:42 AM
131 points
48 comments11 min readLW link3 reviews

Tools for keep­ing focused

benkuhnAug 5, 2020, 2:10 AM
130 points
26 comments4 min readLW link
(www.benkuhn.net)

Self-sac­ri­fice is a scarce resource

mingyuanJun 28, 2020, 5:08 AM
129 points
18 comments5 min readLW link

Seem­ingly Pop­u­lar Covid-19 Model is Ob­vi­ous Nonsense

ZviApr 11, 2020, 11:10 PM
129 points
28 comments4 min readLW link1 review
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Real-Life Ex­am­ples of Pre­dic­tion Sys­tems In­terfer­ing with the Real World (Pre­dict-O-Matic Prob­lems)

NunoSempereDec 3, 2020, 10:00 PM
129 points
28 comments9 min readLW link

The Poin­t­ers Prob­lem: Hu­man Values Are A Func­tion Of Hu­mans’ La­tent Variables

johnswentworthNov 18, 2020, 5:47 PM
128 points
50 comments11 min readLW link2 reviews

AGI safety from first prin­ci­ples: Introduction

Richard_NgoSep 28, 2020, 7:53 PM
128 points
18 comments2 min readLW link1 review

AI Align­ment 2018-19 Review

Rohin ShahJan 28, 2020, 2:19 AM
126 points
6 comments35 min readLW link

In­sights from Eu­clid’s ‘Ele­ments’

TurnTroutMay 4, 2020, 3:45 PM
126 points
17 comments4 min readLW link

Bak­ing is Not a Ritual

Sisi ChengMay 25, 2020, 6:08 PM
125 points
28 comments4 min readLW link

Mov­able Hous­ing for Scal­able Cities

Eliezer YudkowskyMay 15, 2020, 9:21 PM
124 points
28 comments21 min readLW link

The 300-year jour­ney to the covid vaccine

jasoncrawfordNov 9, 2020, 11:06 PM
123 points
9 comments5 min readLW link2 reviews
(rootsofprogress.org)

Philos­o­phy of Therapy

DaystarEldOct 10, 2020, 8:12 PM
121 points
27 comments16 min readLW link
(daystareld.com)

“Zero Sum” is a mis­nomer.

abramdemskiSep 30, 2020, 6:25 PM
120 points
34 comments6 min readLW link

On hid­ing the source of knowledge

jessicataJan 26, 2020, 2:48 AM
120 points
40 comments3 min readLW link
(unstableontology.com)

My Un­der­stand­ing of Paul Chris­ti­ano’s Iter­ated Am­plifi­ca­tion AI Safety Re­search Agenda

Chi NguyenAug 15, 2020, 8:02 PM
120 points
20 comments39 min readLW link

The Align­ment Prob­lem: Ma­chine Learn­ing and Hu­man Values

Rohin ShahOct 6, 2020, 5:41 PM
120 points
7 comments6 min readLW link1 review
(www.amazon.com)

Don­tDoxS­cot­tAlexan­der.com—A Petition

Ben Pace, Bird Concept and Rob Bensinger
25 Jun 2020 5:44 UTC
120 points
32 comments1 min readLW link
(DontDoxScottAlexander.com)

A non-mys­ti­cal ex­pla­na­tion of “no-self” (three char­ac­ter­is­tics se­ries)

Kaj_Sotala8 May 2020 10:37 UTC
120 points
65 comments20 min readLW link1 review

FHI pa­per pub­lished in Science: in­ter­ven­tions against COVID-19

SoerenMind16 Dec 2020 21:19 UTC
119 points
0 comments3 min readLW link

A Sig­nifi­cant Por­tion of COVID-19 Trans­mis­sion Is Presymptomatic

jimrandomh14 Mar 2020 5:52 UTC
119 points
22 comments4 min readLW link1 review

Prob­lem re­lax­ation as a tactic

TurnTrout22 Apr 2020 23:44 UTC
119 points
8 comments7 min readLW link

Tech­nol­ogy Changes Constraints

johnswentworth25 Jan 2020 23:13 UTC
119 points
6 comments4 min readLW link

Parable of the Dammed

johnswentworth10 Dec 2020 0:08 UTC
118 points
29 comments2 min readLW link

[Question] What are your great­est one-shot life im­prove­ments?

Mark Xu16 May 2020 16:53 UTC
118 points
171 comments1 min readLW link

[Question] How Hard Would It Be To Make A COVID Vac­cine For One­self?

johnswentworth21 Dec 2020 16:19 UTC
117 points
29 comments2 min readLW link

My Fear Heuristic

lsusr1 Dec 2020 8:00 UTC
117 points
13 comments1 min readLW link

Can you get AGI from a Trans­former?

Steven Byrnes23 Jul 2020 15:27 UTC
117 points
40 comments12 min readLW link

Si­tu­at­ing LessWrong in con­tem­po­rary philos­o­phy: An in­ter­view with Jon Livengood

Suspended Reason1 Jul 2020 0:37 UTC
117 points
21 comments19 min readLW link

Honor­ing Petrov Day on LessWrong, in 2020

Ben Pace26 Sep 2020 8:01 UTC
117 points
100 comments3 min readLW link

Mea­sur­ing hard­ware overhang

hippke5 Aug 2020 19:59 UTC
116 points
14 comments4 min readLW link

Covid 6/​25: The Dam Breaks

Zvi25 Jun 2020 18:30 UTC
116 points
21 comments8 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Covid 11/​26: Thanksgiving

Zvi26 Nov 2020 14:50 UTC
114 points
14 comments24 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Covid 9/​10: Vi­tamin D

Zvi10 Sep 2020 19:00 UTC
113 points
50 comments15 min readLW link
(thezvi.wordpress.com)

Our take on CHAI’s re­search agenda in un­der 1500 words

Alex Flint17 Jun 2020 12:24 UTC
113 points
18 comments5 min readLW link

The LessWrong 2019 Review

habryka2 Dec 2020 11:21 UTC
113 points
47 comments9 min readLW link

Ex­trap­o­lat­ing GPT-N performance

Lukas Finnveden18 Dec 2020 21:41 UTC
112 points
31 comments22 min readLW link1 review

Jan Bloch’s Im­pos­si­ble War

Slimepriestess17 Feb 2020 16:14 UTC
112 points
30 comments5 min readLW link
(hivewired.wordpress.com)

AGI Predictions

Amandango and Ben Pace
21 Nov 2020 3:46 UTC
112 points
35 comments4 min readLW link

Luna Love­g­ood and the Cham­ber of Se­crets—Part 5

lsusr5 Dec 2020 1:23 UTC
112 points
8 comments3 min readLW link

Launch­ing Fore­cast, a com­mu­nity for crowd­sourced pre­dic­tions from Facebook

Rebecca Kossnick20 Oct 2020 6:20 UTC
111 points
14 comments3 min readLW link