The correlation/causation conundrum is a particularly frustrating one in the social sciences due to the complex interaction of variables related to human experience.
I’ve found looking at time-order and thinking of variables-as-events is a helpful way to simplify experimental design seeking to get at causal mechanisms in my behavioral research.
Take the smoking example:
I would consider measuring changes in strength of correlation at various points in an ongoing experiment.
Once a baseline measurement is obtained from those already smoking subjects/participants, we measure the correlation between avg. number of cigarettes smoked per weak and lung capacity. This way one doesn’t have to randomize or control, unethically asking people to smoke if they don’t already. We already have a hypothesis based on the prior that volume of cigarettes smoked has a strong positive correlation with lung damage, and so reducing the number of cigarettes smoked would improve lung functioning in smokers.
But here we assume that the lifestyles of the smokers studied are relatively stable across the span of the experiment.
The researcher must take into account mediating factors that could impact lung functioning outside of smoking - i.e Intermittent exercise and lifestyle improvements.
In any case, following the same group of people over time is a lot easier than matching comparison groups by race/age/gender/education, or any of the other million human variables.
Environment matters a lot. Bars (for example) are loud, dark, sometimes crowded, and filled with inebriated people.
I CANNOT STRESS THIS POINT ENOUGH:
Thinking in terms of “picking up women” is the first problem. One should take the approach that they are “MEETING women”. The conceptual framing is important here because it will influence intentionality and outcome.
A “meeting” mindset implies equal footing and good intentions, which should be the foundation for any kind of positive human interaction. Many women are turned off by the sense that they are speaking to a man who wants to “pick them up”, perhaps sensing that you are nervous about adding them to your dating resume. It’s hard to relate to that.
Isn’t the goal to engage romantically with a peer, maybe learn something about relationships.
With that little rant out of the way, I think its important to think of where you are best able to have a relaxed and genuine conversation—even with a friend.
If you see a woman at the bar that is especially attractive and worthy of YOUR attention, perhaps admit to her candidly that the location is not your milieu and ask inquisitively if she normally has good conversations at bars. If she says yes and stops at that, chances are she’s not interested in talking more with you or simply is not a good conversationalist.