William_Schlieper

• William_Schlieper 6 Oct 2008 4:43 UTC

  2 points

  on: My Bayesian Enlightenment

  I agree that the nature of that question requires having a mental model of the mathematician, or at least a mental model of mathematicians in general, which for this question we probably don’t have.

  However, a similar question can more unambiguously be answered with Eliezer’s answer of ¹⁄₂.

  You’re at a dinner at a mathematician’s house, and he says that he has two kids. A boy walks through the room, and you ask if the boy is his son. He says yes. What is the probability that the other child is a girl?

• William_Schlieper 2 Sep 2008 3:02 UTC

  0 points

  on: Harder Choices Mat­ter Less

  I wouldn’t trust random numbers from people, though. Making random numbers is nigh impossible for the human brain.