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Eric Neyman

Karma: 2,605

I work at the Alignment Research Center (ARC). I write a blog on stuff I’m interested in (such as math, philosophy, puzzles, statistics, and elections): https://​​ericneyman.wordpress.com/​​

Re­search up­date: Towards a Law of Iter­ated Ex­pec­ta­tions for Heuris­tic Estimators

Eric Neyman7 Oct 2024 19:29 UTC
87 points
2 comments22 min readLW link

[Question] Im­pli­ca­tions of China’s re­ces­sion on AGI de­vel­op­ment?

Eric Neyman28 Sep 2024 1:12 UTC
40 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

My the­sis (Al­gorith­mic Bayesian Episte­mol­ogy) ex­plained in more depth

Eric Neyman9 May 2024 19:43 UTC
79 points
4 comments27 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

My hour of mem­o­ryless lucidity

Eric Neyman4 May 2024 1:40 UTC
358 points
35 comments5 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Eric Ney­man’s Shortform

Eric Neyman25 Apr 2024 5:58 UTC
6 points
23 comments1 min readLW link

My PhD the­sis: Al­gorith­mic Bayesian Epistemology

Eric Neyman16 Mar 2024 22:56 UTC
257 points
14 comments7 min readLW link
(arxiv.org)

How much do you be­lieve your re­sults?

Eric Neyman6 May 2023 20:31 UTC
467 points
14 comments15 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

[Cross­post] ACX 2022 Pre­dic­tion Con­test Results

Scott Alexander, Eric Neyman and Sam Marks
24 Jan 2023 6:56 UTC
46 points
6 comments8 min readLW link

Solv­ing for the op­ti­mal work-life bal­ance with ge­o­met­ric rationality

Eric Neyman28 Nov 2022 17:02 UTC
21 points
1 comment8 min readLW link

[Question] Three ques­tions about mesa-optimizers

Eric Neyman12 Apr 2022 2:58 UTC
24 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

Can group iden­tity be a force for good?

Eric Neyman4 Jul 2021 17:16 UTC
22 points
13 comments6 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

So­cial be­hav­ior curves, equil­ibria, and radicalism

Eric Neyman5 Jun 2021 1:39 UTC
186 points
18 comments20 min readLW link1 review
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

An ex­plo­ra­tion of ex­ploita­tion bias

Eric Neyman3 Apr 2021 23:03 UTC
14 points
0 comments10 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Pseu­do­ran­dom­ness con­test: prizes, re­sults, and analysis

Eric Neyman15 Jan 2021 6:24 UTC
158 points
22 comments20 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Grad­ing my 2020 predictions

Eric Neyman7 Jan 2021 0:33 UTC
8 points
0 comments11 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Over­all num­bers won’t show the English strain coming

Eric Neyman1 Jan 2021 23:00 UTC
60 points
12 comments2 min readLW link

Pre­dic­tions for 2021

Eric Neyman31 Dec 2020 21:12 UTC
8 points
2 comments6 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Great minds might not think alike

Eric Neyman26 Dec 2020 19:51 UTC
304 points
45 comments11 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Pseu­do­ran­dom­ness con­test, Round 2

Eric Neyman20 Dec 2020 8:35 UTC
19 points
6 comments4 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Pseu­do­ran­dom­ness con­test, Round 1

Eric Neyman13 Dec 2020 3:42 UTC
28 points
20 comments3 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)