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Eric Neyman

Karma: 3,814

I work at the Alignment Research Center (ARC). I write a blog on stuff I’m interested in (such as math, philosophy, puzzles, statistics, and elections): https://​​ericneyman.wordpress.com/​​

Will Je­sus Christ re­turn in an elec­tion year?

Eric Neyman24 Mar 2025 16:50 UTC
334 points
46 comments4 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

A com­pu­ta­tional no-co­in­ci­dence principle

Eric Neyman14 Feb 2025 21:39 UTC
148 points
38 comments6 min readLW link
(www.alignment.org)

[Question] Which things were you sur­prised to learn are not metaphors?

Eric Neyman21 Nov 2024 18:56 UTC
135 points
88 comments1 min readLW link

Seven les­sons I didn’t learn from elec­tion day

Eric Neyman14 Nov 2024 18:39 UTC
97 points
33 comments13 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Re­search up­date: Towards a Law of Iter­ated Ex­pec­ta­tions for Heuris­tic Estimators

Eric Neyman7 Oct 2024 19:29 UTC
87 points
2 comments22 min readLW link

[Question] Im­pli­ca­tions of China’s re­ces­sion on AGI de­vel­op­ment?

Eric Neyman28 Sep 2024 1:12 UTC
41 points
3 comments1 min readLW link

My the­sis (Al­gorith­mic Bayesian Episte­mol­ogy) ex­plained in more depth

Eric Neyman9 May 2024 19:43 UTC
82 points
4 comments27 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

My hour of mem­o­ryless lucidity

Eric Neyman4 May 2024 1:40 UTC
371 points
35 comments5 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Eric Ney­man’s Shortform

Eric Neyman25 Apr 2024 5:58 UTC
6 points
24 commentsLW link

My PhD the­sis: Al­gorith­mic Bayesian Epistemology

Eric Neyman16 Mar 2024 22:56 UTC
262 points
14 comments7 min readLW link
(arxiv.org)

How much do you be­lieve your re­sults?

Eric Neyman6 May 2023 20:31 UTC
507 points
18 comments15 min readLW link4 reviews
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

[Cross­post] ACX 2022 Pre­dic­tion Con­test Results

Scott Alexander, Eric Neyman and Sam Marks
24 Jan 2023 6:56 UTC
48 points
6 comments8 min readLW link

Solv­ing for the op­ti­mal work-life bal­ance with ge­o­met­ric rationality

Eric Neyman28 Nov 2022 17:02 UTC
23 points
1 comment8 min readLW link

[Question] Three ques­tions about mesa-optimizers

Eric Neyman12 Apr 2022 2:58 UTC
26 points
5 comments3 min readLW link

Can group iden­tity be a force for good?

Eric Neyman4 Jul 2021 17:16 UTC
24 points
13 comments6 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

So­cial be­hav­ior curves, equil­ibria, and radicalism

Eric Neyman5 Jun 2021 1:39 UTC
190 points
18 comments20 min readLW link1 review
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

An ex­plo­ra­tion of ex­ploita­tion bias

Eric Neyman3 Apr 2021 23:03 UTC
16 points
0 comments10 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Pseu­do­ran­dom­ness con­test: prizes, re­sults, and analysis

Eric Neyman15 Jan 2021 6:24 UTC
164 points
22 comments20 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Grad­ing my 2020 predictions

Eric Neyman7 Jan 2021 0:33 UTC
11 points
0 comments11 min readLW link
(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Over­all num­bers won’t show the English strain coming

Eric Neyman1 Jan 2021 23:00 UTC
63 points
12 comments2 min readLW link