Eric Neyman

Karma: 2,867

I work at the Alignment Research Center (ARC). I write a blog on stuff I’m interested in (such as math, philosophy, puzzles, statistics, and elections): https://ericneyman.wordpress.com/

[Question] Which things were you surprised to learn are not metaphors?

Eric Neyman21 Nov 2024 18:56 UTC

121 points

68 comments1 min readLW link

Seven lessons I didn’t learn from election day

Eric Neyman14 Nov 2024 18:39 UTC

95 points

33 comments13 min readLW link

(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Research update: Towards a Law of Iterated Expectations for Heuristic Estimators

Eric Neyman7 Oct 2024 19:29 UTC

87 points

2 comments22 min readLW link

[Question] Implications of China’s recession on AGI development?

Eric Neyman28 Sep 2024 1:12 UTC

40 points

3 comments1 min readLW link

My thesis (Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology) explained in more depth

Eric Neyman9 May 2024 19:43 UTC

79 points

4 comments27 min readLW link

(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

My hour of memoryless lucidity

Eric Neyman4 May 2024 1:40 UTC

358 points

35 comments5 min readLW link

(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Eric Neyman’s Shortform

Eric Neyman25 Apr 2024 5:58 UTC

6 points

23 comments1 min readLW link

My PhD thesis: Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology

Eric Neyman16 Mar 2024 22:56 UTC

257 points

14 comments7 min readLW link

(arxiv.org)

How much do you believe your results?

Eric Neyman6 May 2023 20:31 UTC

473 points

14 comments15 min readLW link

(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

[Crosspost] ACX 2022 Prediction Contest Results

Scott Alexander, Eric Neyman and Sam Marks

24 Jan 2023 6:56 UTC

46 points

6 comments8 min readLW link

Solving for the optimal work-life balance with geometric rationality

Eric Neyman28 Nov 2022 17:02 UTC

21 points

1 comment8 min readLW link

[Question] Three questions about mesa-optimizers

Eric Neyman12 Apr 2022 2:58 UTC

24 points

5 comments3 min readLW link

Can group identity be a force for good?

Eric Neyman4 Jul 2021 17:16 UTC

22 points

13 comments6 min readLW link

(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Social behavior curves, equilibria, and radicalism

Eric Neyman5 Jun 2021 1:39 UTC

186 points

18 comments20 min readLW link 1 review

(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

An exploration of exploitation bias

Eric Neyman3 Apr 2021 23:03 UTC

14 points

0 comments10 min readLW link

(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Pseudorandomness contest: prizes, results, and analysis

Eric Neyman15 Jan 2021 6:24 UTC

158 points

22 comments20 min readLW link

(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Grading my 2020 predictions

Eric Neyman7 Jan 2021 0:33 UTC

8 points

0 comments11 min readLW link

(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Overall numbers won’t show the English strain coming

Eric Neyman1 Jan 2021 23:00 UTC

60 points

12 comments2 min readLW link

Predictions for 2021

Eric Neyman31 Dec 2020 21:12 UTC

8 points

2 comments6 min readLW link

(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Great minds might not think alike

Eric Neyman26 Dec 2020 19:51 UTC

304 points

45 comments11 min readLW link

(ericneyman.wordpress.com)