Eric Neyman

Karma: 3,705

I work at the Alignment Research Center (ARC). I write a blog on stuff I’m interested in (such as math, philosophy, puzzles, statistics, and elections): https://ericneyman.wordpress.com/

Will Jesus Christ return in an election year?

Eric NeymanMar 24, 2025, 4:50 PM

329 points

45 comments4 min readLW link

(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

A computational no-coincidence principle

Eric NeymanFeb 14, 2025, 9:39 PM

148 points

38 comments6 min readLW link

(www.alignment.org)

[Question] Which things were you surprised to learn are not metaphors?

Eric NeymanNov 21, 2024, 6:56 PM

135 points

88 comments1 min readLW link

Seven lessons I didn’t learn from election day

Eric NeymanNov 14, 2024, 6:39 PM

97 points

33 comments13 min readLW link

(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Research update: Towards a Law of Iterated Expectations for Heuristic Estimators

Eric NeymanOct 7, 2024, 7:29 PM

87 points

2 comments22 min readLW link

[Question] Implications of China’s recession on AGI development?

Eric NeymanSep 28, 2024, 1:12 AM

41 points

3 comments1 min readLW link

My thesis (Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology) explained in more depth

Eric NeymanMay 9, 2024, 7:43 PM

82 points

4 comments27 min readLW link

(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

My hour of memoryless lucidity

Eric NeymanMay 4, 2024, 1:40 AM

369 points

35 comments5 min readLW link

(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Eric Neyman’s Shortform

Eric NeymanApr 25, 2024, 5:58 AM

6 points

24 comments LW link

My PhD thesis: Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology

Eric NeymanMar 16, 2024, 10:56 PM

262 points

14 comments7 min readLW link

(arxiv.org)

How much do you believe your results?

Eric NeymanMay 6, 2023, 8:31 PM

507 points

18 comments15 min readLW link 4 reviews

(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

[Crosspost] ACX 2022 Prediction Contest Results

Scott Alexander, Eric Neyman and Sam Marks

Jan 24, 2023, 6:56 AM

48 points

6 comments8 min readLW link

Solving for the optimal work-life balance with geometric rationality

Eric NeymanNov 28, 2022, 5:02 PM

23 points

1 comment8 min readLW link

[Question] Three questions about mesa-optimizers

Eric NeymanApr 12, 2022, 2:58 AM

26 points

5 comments3 min readLW link

Can group identity be a force for good?

Eric NeymanJul 4, 2021, 5:16 PM

24 points

13 comments6 min readLW link

(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Social behavior curves, equilibria, and radicalism

Eric NeymanJun 5, 2021, 1:39 AM

190 points

18 comments20 min readLW link 1 review

(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

An exploration of exploitation bias

Eric NeymanApr 3, 2021, 11:03 PM

16 points

0 comments10 min readLW link

(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Pseudorandomness contest: prizes, results, and analysis

Eric NeymanJan 15, 2021, 6:24 AM

164 points

22 comments20 min readLW link

(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Grading my 2020 predictions

Eric NeymanJan 7, 2021, 12:33 AM

11 points

0 comments11 min readLW link

(ericneyman.wordpress.com)

Overall numbers won’t show the English strain coming

Eric NeymanJan 1, 2021, 11:00 PM

63 points

12 comments2 min readLW link