I’ll bet. Up to $100k of mine against $2k of yours. 50:1. (I honestly think the odds are more like 1000+:1, and would in principle be willing to go higher, but generally think people shouldn’t bet more than they’d be willing to lose, as bets above that amount could drive bad behavior. I would be happy to lose $100k on discovering aliens/time travel/new laws of physics/supernatural/etc.)
Happy to write a contract of sorts. I’m a findable figure and I’ve made public bets before (e.g., $4k wagered on AGI-fueled growth by 2043).
Fair. I accept. 200:1 of my $100k against your $500. How are you setting these up?
I’m happy to pay $100k if my understanding of the universe (no aliens, no supernatural, etc.) is shaken. Also happy to pay up after 5 years if evidence turns up later about activities before or in this 5-year period.
(Also, regarding history, I have a second Less Wrong account with 11 years of history: https://www.lesswrong.com/users/tedsanders)