As an OpenAI employee I cannot say too much about short-term expectations for GPT, but I generally agree with most of his subpoints; e.g., running many copies, speeding up with additional compute, having way better capabilities than today, have more modalities than today. All of that sounds reasonable. The leap for me is (a) believing that results in transformative AGI and (b) figuring out how to get these things to learn (efficiently) from experience. So in the end I find myself pretty unmoved by his article (which is high quality, to be sure).
As an OpenAI employee I cannot say too much about short-term expectations for GPT, but I generally agree with most of his subpoints; e.g., running many copies, speeding up with additional compute, having way better capabilities than today, have more modalities than today. All of that sounds reasonable. The leap for me is (a) believing that results in transformative AGI and (b) figuring out how to get these things to learn (efficiently) from experience. So in the end I find myself pretty unmoved by his article (which is high quality, to be sure).