Neville is the most likely next target for an attack intended to separate Harry from his allies. Voldemort is probably too clever to try the same trick twice, though.
tadrinth
Karma: 201
On the last point: Hermione almost certainly was false memory charmed twice; H&C would have removed the memory of their final conversation and replaced with with something innocuous at the same time as he implanted the false memory of casting the blood-cooling charm, so as to not leave a suspicious gap. He might also have implanted false memories immediately after the groundhog day attack, either to cover up the time gap or to not have Hermione wandering around with an extremely suspicious memory in her head (If Dumbledore or Snape had seen the memory of H&C, or his less-creepy disguise, they probably would have been fairly suspicious).
I’m not sure if anyone has commented on this, but I just noticed it while rereading the Self-Actualization chapters:
Hermione went to tremendous lengths to be her own person rather than just something of Harry’s, including becoming a general and fighting bullies. Now she has sworn herself into Harry’s service and house forever. That is really sad.
The dementors serve at least three purposes in Azkaban: they drain the magic from prisoners to render them helpless, they notify the guards when prisoners escape, and they chase down and incapacitate escaped prisoners and intruders. If Harry destroys 90% of the dementors, there probably won’t be enough left for the first or third purposes. That would make Azkaban much less secure, and the perception of Azkaban’s security would go down if there are hardly any dementors since the dementors are what make it infallible. Even just demonstrating that Dementors CAN be destroyed would probably force them to completely remake Azkaban to not depend on the dementors.
The dark side is presumably the result of the botched Horcrux creation ritual and is in some way an aspect of Voldermort’s mind or soul. An AI might have different modules for emotions and computation, but a human mind is not so cleanly separated.
Ah, but Harry doesn’t intend to kill Dementors in particular, he aims to eradicate death itself (destroying them indirectly) and he is NOT confident that he will accomplish that in his lifetime. A Dementor that pisses off Harry dies immediately, while a Dementor that doesn’t will only die if Harry lives long enough to succeed.
Email sent!
I think people would appreciate knowing that they might still have a shot even if they haven’t heard anything. You could maybe ask Eliezer to put a note that you’re still wading through applications in his next HPMOR author’s note. =P Otherwise, I think a mass email would not be too annoying to those who have already heard from you and very much appreciated by those who haven’t.
Yeah, the early stuff in Jaynes is pretty comprehensible (the ideas are clear if not all the proofs). Intro stats classes tend to be very light on the proofs, though. They’re very much “here’s probability”, not “here’s why probability”. I’ll definitely reread Jaynes again before teaching, but I want to finish Bolstad and work through some of the problems before that.
I do need to read up on those; Jaynes talks about the implications of Cox’s theorem but doesn’t go into it directly, so I’m only vaguely familiar. Thank you for the reading suggestions. I did plan to talk about those issues in the introduction of the course. Bolstad has an intro section justifying the Bayesian perspective, as well.
I think I picked that particular set of justifications because educators in general don’t care about mathematical proofs, they care about what will be useful for the students to know how to do; in biology, the point of knowing statistics is to be able to read and write scientific papers, and the vast majority of papers are written using frequentist statistics. Proofs will not convince them; the fact that top professors are using Bayesian methods might.
My expectation was that I would replace a mediocre frequentist statistics lecturer with an excellent bayesian statistics lecturer within the same class. The class that I TA is taught by multiple professors, and at least one of them teaches from a Bayesian perspective. Professors have ridiculous academic freedom; one professor covers only basic t-tests, while another professor covers everything from linear regressions to the KS test to chi-squared to two-way ANOVA, and it’s still the same course listing. So long as the students aren’t complaining about failing, the university does not care. The students can try to sign up for a different professor, and will do so if they hear another prof is easier, but they still have to take the class, so even harder professors still have full sections (especially if their version has a reputation for being very useful/educational).
So, assuming that I would be hired to teach statistics and could choose to teach either frequentist or Bayesian, I see very little point in teaching frequentist. I could also reach vastly more students lecturing than I could via tutoring, probably 80ish vs 10ish.
I think the students that are interested in learning Bayesian stats should have the option available; I think there are probably a fair number of students who are smart, savvy, and motivated enough to sign up for a stronger stats course but aren’t quite good enough to teach it to themselves.
I think I would almost rather not teach statistics than teach straight frequentist. I am really sick of teaching kids stuff that I know is suboptimal. I mean, I could do a good job of it, but raising the waterline isn’t worth being miserable.
This paper consists of some vague simulations, followed by wild speculation. I’m pretty sure it’s bunk (speaking as a computational/cell biologist). It would be pretty easy to test, as well, as disrupting microtubules AT ALL would completely destroy memories if he is correct.
Here’s another idea: Draco uses his Patronus to tell the assembly he forgives the blood debt. Harry can use his own Patronus to beg Draco to do this.
If “A potion spends that which is invested in the creation of its ingredients.” then what the heck goes into an Animagus potion? Something that’s been transfigured a lot?
Edit: It doesn’t seem like the method for becoming an Animagus is described in canon, so the potion aspect might be new to MoR.
If potion invention is slow, Harry must have gotten the light potion from a book, since I don’t think there’s enough time between battles to do serious potion research safely between classes and homework, even for Harry’s 30 hours a day. If he can invent potions that fast, he potentially has a huge number of instant win conditions available (that’s what I really meant, that rapid potion invention would be a huge pain in the ass to write around). I think at this point it’s clear that Harry probably does know enough to invent potions, but not without probably months or years of experimentation per new recipe. If he didn’t know enough to be dangerous he wouldn’t have freaked out Flitwick.
Harry comments at some point that “He’d noticed the correlation between the effort Professor Quirrell expended and the time he had to spend ‘resting’.” (74)
Harry notices after Azkaban that Quirrell looks older (65).
What I meant was that it seems like Quirrell has spent more and more of his time active using his body as little as possible. Maybe we’ve just seen it more because he’s hid less from Harry? In the most recent battle he talked and made the tiniest possible shrug but otherwise didn’t move at all. When he was grading papers he did it purely by magic as well. Whenever he can let his body sit around and not move, he seems to try to do that.
My theory is that potions which don’t involve magical ingredients are obscure because they’re usually less powerful and because they require a greater investment of energy from the creator to do the reshaping (explaining why Harry doesn’t do very much in that battle). Given that Flitwick and McGonagal had suggestions of books to make at all after hearing what Harry wanted, it seems very likely that such potions do exist, just not in the standard textbooks. It seems very likely that Harry got his potion out of a book, because potions research is dangerous and presumably very time consuming, and because Harry with the ability to invent potions would be powerful enough to wreck the story.
The catatonia appears to be getting worse and worse over time. Channeling strong magic through Quirrell accelerates the decay. I suspect he’ll crap out as a host by the end of the school year, and that’s with Quirrell being reasonably conservative of his energy.
I’d like to point out that after Azkaban, when Quirrell tries to talk Harry into his next plot, Harry refuses by citing what Hermione and Draco would say. Quirrell sits there and thinks for a really long time, and asks if Harry really cares about what they think. My guess is that right then and there is when Quirrell decides to take them out.
What evidence is there that H&C isn’t just Quirrell wrapped in an illusion?
There’s no need for Hermione to have cast the lethal hex. She wins the duel, then the real perpetrator stuns both of them, hexes Draco, and then memory charms Hermione into thinking she did it. However, if that’s the case, unless the perpetrator then used Hermione’s wand to cast the hex, checking what spells her wand had cast would reveal something fishy.
Why are we proposing the H&C is not clever and powerful?
The terms of the challenge state that she can’t tell anyone about it before or after the duel or it goes to the Wizangamot. So, no, presumably she can’t tell Harry about it.
Heck, she might have severely injured Draco by accident, rendered basic medical care, and then just left, because she can’t tell anyone. If someone found Draco unconscious and half-dead later, and they figured out Hermione did it and left him, that would look like attempted murder.
Wizarding society likes to let people figure out the dangerous secrets for themselves. You don’t tell people the dangerous secrets until they have proven themselves on the easier ones, you don’t tell people the secret of potion invention because they might get turned into cats, etc.
Of course, Harry can violate that as he pleases if it is just a social convention, and Harry’s guesses at principles seem\ to hold up far better than it seems like it should.