[1] For scenario 1(herd immunity) to be a viable option we need that the virus doesn’t mutate too fast and that that the reinfection rate is low enough. To my knowledge there is still a large uncertainty about either of those conditions.
[2] Some people in my circle are suggesting that we get rid of handshakes on a permanent basis, arguing that the expected spread of not only covid but also other regular germs. I am worried about costs associated with increased isolation but acknowledge that it would save lives.
Would you be willing to specify the theory further? My immediate counterexample to that is that solving climate change and AI alignment both has a lot of resistance and that if all individuals went along the path of personally least resistance we would disappear as a species within a few centuries, but I assume I’m missing something.