SkyDK

Karma: 256

SkyDK Mar 29, 2012, 3:04 PM
3 points
in reply to: mjr’s comment on: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81
Why do you not consider Snape to be an alternative? Yes, Quirrelmort has gained a lot by Hat’s actions, but: a) Quirrel could be manipulating Snape. b) Quirrelmort probably has an extremely accurate mental model of Snape.

What is your mental model of Snape?

SkyDK Mar 28, 2012, 2:12 PM
6 points
in reply to: MarkusRamikin’s comment on: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81
You may very well be right. Due to free-riding and buck-passing I’d still expect a lot of them to do nothing.

Recall also that they’re all in internal power struggles over ink monopolies and what have you, plus Lucius lack of complete control has already been pointed out by Lucius.

For all those who think the blood debt will hurt their rivals more than themselves there’s good reason not to change the framing of the debt. Not to forget being the one to start this campaign will be both financially and politically costly. A beautiful collective action problem. Either way, we’ve too little insights into the political power balances to make qualified estimates about the “wall-paper’s” reaction.

SkyDK Mar 28, 2012, 2:07 PM
3 points
in reply to: Lavode’s comment on: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81
A possibility. Though for some of the lesser wealthy houses that is probably not the first option. For some a blood debt might also be a good way to join Harry’s side if he seems to start winning. For the opposite reason a lot might do nothing because they expect Lucius to crush him before he makes claim to his debts.

Free-riding and buck-passing are frequent solutions in the political game.

SkyDK Mar 28, 2012, 11:31 AM
7 points
in reply to: MarkusRamikin’s comment on: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81
Highly unlikely: blood debts have probably been a significant political currency for a long time, and both due to institutional path-dependency and a lot of vested interests, I highly doubt that they’d change the importance of blood debts. Also: it seems like a lot of the justice system is built up around this concept. It would require a total overhaul of the justice system to deal with the blood debt. Otherwise they’d have to change the significance of being imperiuse’d which is also unlikely due to most of them otherwise being Azkaban(ne)d

SkyDK Mar 28, 2012, 3:52 AM
9 points
in reply to: Joshua Hobbes’s comment on: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81
It would be a bad use of political capital considering how easy he could gain money in other ways while keeping a majority(? - at least combined with some help from Dumbledore’s side) vote on pretty much whatever issue up his sleeve...

SkyDK Mar 28, 2012, 3:41 AM
2 points
in reply to: aladner’s comment on: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 12
My only problem with the two listed options is that they both require him to renege on important political capital. I’d rather go for some arbitraging then (perhaps with time-turn earned lottery start-up capital).

If smartly done he’d find the number of some lottery tickets, #5 or #6; buy said tickets and get the memory removed of why and how he did it.

… In general a time turner should make the whole money-making part easier than what’s worth thinking about.

SkyDK Mar 28, 2012, 3:28 AM
8 points
in reply to: Eliezer Yudkowsky’s comment on: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 13, chapter 81
It was great! It also allowed me to test a couple of thesis of generating solutions. The closest I got was doing something completely different than working directly on the generating of solutions; I can’t remember the name of the theory stating that this should be the case, and while having it strengthened is somewhat disheartening it is nevertheless a useful piece of information.

Now if I weren’t so bad at shaving, I might even remember to use Occam’s razor next time and reduce “Harry marries Hermione” to “Harry makes Hermione part of house Potter”. Still much in the ways of the force have I to learn ;)

Only defence of my marriage theory was that I wasn’t quite sure that people could just be adopted into houses. Even thought it makes perfect sense, having seen it in action.

I suspect/expect you’ll write what power Lucius can legally claim over Harry sometimes soon?

Also I learned to actually look up the experiments you referred to...

All in all thank you for a highly entertaining and inspiring chapter!

SkyDK Mar 28, 2012, 3:02 AM
3 points
in reply to: Pringlescan’s comment on: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 12
No reason not to convince them now… With the newly won time and without the considerable risks in your good (but overly complicated) plan.

SkyDK Mar 28, 2012, 2:59 AM
11 points
in reply to: aladner’s comment on: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 12
Harry has already figured out quite a few solutions to the monetary problem. The long run (and cheap solution) would be to apply himself and his side to the clearing of Hermione’s name. That wouldn’t just earn him a 100.000 galleons it would also improve Hermione’s political standing, leave Malfoy’s (and to a certain extent Dumbledore’s) reputation in its currently weakened state plus strengthen his argument against the political structure of Magical Britain. Not to mention he can do all this WHILE having starting his money-making schemes. Though we might as well not care since I seem to recall that the great EY seems to have said that this story ends after the first year of Hogwarts. Regardless: the interesting part is what kind of extra power Lucius has vis-a-vis Harry now.

SkyDK Mar 28, 2012, 2:43 AM
0 points
in reply to: Alsadius’s comment on: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 11
[Deleted: I completely forgot I’m not allowed to talk about later chapters in this discussion thread]

SkyDK Mar 27, 2012, 9:20 AM
0 points
in reply to: Alsadius’s comment on: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 12
He was just about to let himself be traded without Harry pushing for it… If Harry implicates him I think he’ might rather protect Harry’s reputation than his own; at least until he figures out what the “hero’s” plan is. And even if he doesn’t allow himself to be traded Harry still score significant points with Lucius—points enough to get Hermione out of Azkaban I’d wager

SkyDK Mar 27, 2012, 9:18 AM
2 points
in reply to: anotherblackhat’s comment on: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 12
Yes, but as such Harry should also think that Dumbledore should have an easier time dealing with dementors than most others. Hence the suffering Dumbledore would suffer in Azkaban until matters had been settled would be less than what Hermione would have to go through.

SkyDK Mar 26, 2012, 10:13 PM
0 points
in reply to: Joshua Hobbes’s comment on: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 11
Well Draco is not head of the house, so that doesn’t really prove or disprove anything. Hermione’s parents don’t have legal status since they’re muggles; leaving us with very little evidence to how this house business works seen in the context of the wider legal system.

SkyDK Mar 26, 2012, 10:10 PM
0 points
in reply to: Alsadius’s comment on: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 11
Age does not seem to be a major issue (you could be betrothed as seen earlier since before you’re born), so I hardly think that is a hindrance.. Also see “They’re eleven, and she’s been convicted of murder”. Besides that I must admit to have no idea what constitutes a legal marriage in Magical Britain, but the debt does seem to be owed to the house though...

SkyDK Mar 26, 2012, 8:27 PM
0 points
on: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 12
What’s the probability of Harry trading Dumbledore for Hermione?

With the way the trail is going I hardly see why Harry should continue to value Dumbledore a lot.

Lucius would applaud this, Quirrelmort would as well; Dumbledore claiming Harry to be an Occlumens would seem rather desperate and with the current situation Dumbledore’s standing isn’t particularly strong.

This could be achieved by Harry claiming to have Dumbledore testified to have been behind the burning of Lucius’ wife. (and perhaps going further also behind the attack on Draco). Harry can easily defend that he hasn’t said this before due to the obvious power Dumbledore holds.

SkyDK Mar 24, 2012, 5:10 PM
2 points
on: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 11
A thought struck me.

Could Harry not personally marry Hermione, thus make her a member of the House of Potter, hence make the blood debt owed one owed by his house? After that he could burden the punishment himself hence display the absurdity of the whole justice system, perhaps off a dementor or two in the process just for the kicks.

Please enlighten me.. If this solution is possible it certainly seems the easiest (all though I do like the “blame Voldemort-option” as well).

SkyDK Mar 24, 2012, 4:36 PM
0 points
on: Guardians of the Truth
I think it’s easier to go deeper yet simpler. I would say that this is close, but still missing “Questions like that don’t have neat single-factor answers. But I would argue that one of the factors has to do with assuming a defensive posture toward the truth, versus a productive posture toward the truth.”

and: “When people connect their personal value and self-esteem to a given belief they’re prone to persecute anyone claiming that given belief to be false, since they see that claim as undermining their reason to exist”.

Or more plainly: Debates become existential struggles for some people, because they ultimately do not separate themselves from their believes and opinions. Hence they react extremely strongly to any perceived threat to their belief or opinion; occasionally as strongly (or stronger) than had their physical person been threatened with extinction.

SkyDK 24 Mar 2012 14:19 UTC
0 points
in reply to: Nigel_Mellish3’s comment on: The Amazing Virgin Pregnancy
Suggestion: Help along

SkyDK 24 Mar 2012 14:19 UTC
−1 points
in reply to: Raw_Power’s comment on: The Amazing Virgin Pregnancy
Not at all; discretion, social manipulation and control should do the trick. Powerful alliances would be better as well.

Why? Well; sinful behaviour+ discretion+ political capital has a higher probability of leading to a good reputation than good behaviour and bad political standing.

SkyDK 24 Mar 2012 10:52 UTC
7 points
in reply to: Eliezer Yudkowsky’s comment on: Entangled Truths, Contagious Lies
And this doesn’t sound like a teleological argument to yourself?