Our main struggle ahead as a species is to ensure UBI occurs and in a generous rather than meager way. This direction is not at all certain and we should be warned by your example of feudalism as an alternate path that is perhaps looming as more likely. Nevertheless I agree we will see some degree of UBI because the alternative is too painful.
One of the ways you should add for those without capital to still rise post-AGI is celebrity status in sports, entertainment, arts. Consider that today humans still enjoy Broadway and still play chess, even though edited recordings and chess software can be better. Especially if UBI is plentiful, expect a surge in all sorts of non-economic status games. (Will we see a professional league of teams competing against freshly AI-designed escape rooms each week?)
The blog could be extended with greater consideration of future economic value-add by bits vs atoms. Enjoyed the comments discussing which investments today will hold up tomorrow. Can we agree that blue collar jobs will be safer, longer? AGI is digital but must exist in a physical world. And any generally acceptable post-AGI economy must still provide for human food, clothing, shelter, and health. Post-AGI we can expect a long period where AI-assisted humans (whose time has zero marginal cost if we stipulate UBI) are still cost-superior to building robots, especially in a world of legacy infrastructure. Hence there should still be entrepreneurship and social mobility around providing physical world products and services.
If states become AI dominated, will those AIs possess nationalist instincts? If so, we could see great conflicts continue or heighten in a fight for resources. Perhaps especially during the race to be first to AGI primacy in the next decade. But if not, perhaps we would see accommodations among unlikely borders and the unlocking of free trade for globally-optimized efficiency.
These are nuances to suggest and overall your thesis that social mobility could decline and the next decade may prove especially fateful is pretty solid. Let’s all do what we can while we can.
A great post.
Our main struggle ahead as a species is to ensure UBI occurs and in a generous rather than meager way. This direction is not at all certain and we should be warned by your example of feudalism as an alternate path that is perhaps looming as more likely. Nevertheless I agree we will see some degree of UBI because the alternative is too painful.
One of the ways you should add for those without capital to still rise post-AGI is celebrity status in sports, entertainment, arts. Consider that today humans still enjoy Broadway and still play chess, even though edited recordings and chess software can be better. Especially if UBI is plentiful, expect a surge in all sorts of non-economic status games. (Will we see a professional league of teams competing against freshly AI-designed escape rooms each week?)
The blog could be extended with greater consideration of future economic value-add by bits vs atoms. Enjoyed the comments discussing which investments today will hold up tomorrow. Can we agree that blue collar jobs will be safer, longer? AGI is digital but must exist in a physical world. And any generally acceptable post-AGI economy must still provide for human food, clothing, shelter, and health. Post-AGI we can expect a long period where AI-assisted humans (whose time has zero marginal cost if we stipulate UBI) are still cost-superior to building robots, especially in a world of legacy infrastructure. Hence there should still be entrepreneurship and social mobility around providing physical world products and services.
If states become AI dominated, will those AIs possess nationalist instincts? If so, we could see great conflicts continue or heighten in a fight for resources. Perhaps especially during the race to be first to AGI primacy in the next decade. But if not, perhaps we would see accommodations among unlikely borders and the unlocking of free trade for globally-optimized efficiency.
These are nuances to suggest and overall your thesis that social mobility could decline and the next decade may prove especially fateful is pretty solid. Let’s all do what we can while we can.