I think that lying should be possible from the beginning but, since you are a detective, you have the ability to gauge someone’s reliability which is displayed as a percentage (like in your drawings). Also while reading I thought maybe it would be possible to combine ‘evidence’ to create new evidence. ie: Alice’s shoes are wet && Bob’s weather records show that there hasn’t been rain in weeks +=Alice has stepped into the local lake for something today.
PikachuSpecial
Karma: 1
Can’t we just assume that whatever we do was predicted correctly? The problem does assume an ‘almost certain’ predictor. Shouldn’t that make two-boxing the worst move?
I disagree that there should be situations where the less likely situation is correct only becaus it is less likely ( as a pre-programmed result). The likelihood of an event occurring in the game should be a result of your acquired evidence and only 100% certainty can exist when there is enough concrete evidence supporting the outcome. Within the game it should be possible for the true outcome to receive a high probability. Your idea however is essential in situations where the probability of events are very close. For example in a situation with 5 outcomes where all their probabilities are 15-30% it wouldn’t and shouldn’t be obvious.