doesn’t track the time value of money in the global economy
(Ignoring liquidity rewards) Therefore, other platform users have access to similar lucrative return rates (Polymarket and Manifold fund liquidity without meaningful revenue) as those fireselling, so best returns may be ignoring obvious longterm markets altogether:
https://manifold.markets/Nu%C3%B1oSempere/this-question-will-resolve-positive-4a418ad86de3#jdUj58EdDXBbF8ZNyXaT
reflect true probabilities, especially for low-probability events
Polymarket could consider at least being explicit about that limitation and disallow wagers beyond 99% like Kalshi and Manifold currently do:
More annual links:
https://hntoplinks.com/year
Magnum forums like this one:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/allPosts?timeframe=yearly
https://lesswrong.com/allPosts?timeframe=yearly
https://progressforum.org/allPosts?timeframe=yearly
https://forum.fastcommunity.org/allPosts?timeframe=yearly
and subreddits:
https://reddit.com/r/*/top/?t=year
impressive LLM benchmark/test results seemingly overfit some datasets:
https://x.com/cHHillee/status/1635790330854526981
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/57906379-extra-life tackles similar questions and claims fertilizers, sanitation, and vaccines saved billions of lives each:
https://www.workersliberty.org/story/2022-01-25/20000-days-history-life-expectancy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect seems like a decent entry point to rabbit hole similar phenomenon
shut your phone off
Leave phones elsewhere, remove batteries, or faraday cage them if you’re concerned about state-level actors:
Studies keep showing sugar does not cause hyperactivity in children.
I assume the sugar myth is because food dye causes hyperactivity:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32006369/
https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9573786/
https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4321798/
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3441937/
Free static page services offer previews:
Lots of related concepts like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Analysis_paralysis
+1 to be able to check notifications, messages, and specific posts here without seeing newsfeeds:
https://github.com/jordwest/news-feed-eradicator/issues/253
https://github.com/ForumMagnum/ForumMagnum/issues/6640
opened Github issues to track / +1:
https://github.com/jordwest/news-feed-eradicator/issues/253
https://github.com/ForumMagnum/ForumMagnum/issues/6640
Those numbers don’t support that claim because of:
More intelligent students (Flynn effect)
>50% more HS students
Higher standardized test participation among HS students (test takers ~doubled with only >50% more students)