Of course I’m into trying to understand things better (and that’s a good slice of what I recommend!), but:
You need to make decisions in the interim
There is a bunch of detail that won’t be captured by whatever your high level models are (like what will be the impacts of wording an email this way versus that)
I think that for complete decisions you’d have a model of the whole future unfolding of civilization, and this is hard enough that we’re not going to do it with “a few years of study”
No competition open right now, but I think there’s an audience (myself included) for more good thoughts on this topic, if you have something that feels like it might be worth sharing.