swe, speculative investor
O O
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https://x.com/rwang07/status/1924658336600854632
Other countries adopting Chinese hardware may mean this was basically the US being forced to sell their GPUs to prevent the Chinese from taking advantage of economies of scale.
Have you heard the idea where you just train the model on a range of constants if your constants are off from the physical world? If the coefficient of friction changed a bit in the real world, I doubt humans would suddenly forget how to move, and instead would adjust pretty quickly. Making a model tolerant to the plausible range of sim2real errors might be possible without having an accurate simulation or hand-crafted heuristics.
Yeah but aren’t false positives also a problem here?
A much more effective pause or slowdown strategy would be to convince people current AI is garbage and not to invest in AI research.
Do they? I thought they do well on the easier section
I’d argue OpenAI weaning off Microsoft is a sign of strength. They no longer need give up immense future profits to a big tech company to back them, they have shown the ability to raise again and again. They just had the largest funding round in history. They are also probably the fastest growing company revenue wise in human history. Doom and gloom seems a bit premature.
I wonder if giving it an example of the intended translated writing style helps.
Not just central banks but the U.S. going off the gold standard too then fiddling with bond yields to cover up ensuing inflation maybe?
It’s quite strange that owning all the world’s (public) productive assets have only beaten gold, a largely useless shiny metal, by 1% per year over the last 56 years.
Even if you focus on rolling metrics to(this is 5 year rolling returns).:
there are lots of long stretches of gold beating world equities, especially in recent times. There are people with the suspicion (myself included) that there hasn’t been much material growth in the world over the last 40 or so years compared to before. And that since growth is slowing down, this issue is worse if you select more recent points in time, with gold handily beating equities if you start 25 years ago.
Has GDP essentially been goodharted by central banks in recent times? Wonder if there’s more research into this.
I just think they’ll be easy to fool. For example, historically many companies would get political favors (tariff exemptions) by making flashy fake headlines such as promising to spend trillions on factories.
China has no specific animal welfare laws. There are also some Chinese that regard animal welfare as a Western import. Maybe the claim that they have no concept at all is too strong, but it’s certainly minimized by previous regimes.
ieMao regarded the love for pets and the sympathy for the downtrodden as bourgeoise
And China’s average meat consumption being lower could just be a reflection of their gdp per capita being lower. I don’t know where you got the 14% vegetarian number. I can find 5% online. About the same as US numbers.
I don’t think the Trump admin has the capacity to meaningful take over an AGI project. Whatever happens, I think the lab leadership will be calling the shots.
Looked up a poll from 2023. Though, maybe that poll is biased by people not voicing their true opinions?
Chinese culture is just less sympathetic in general. China practically has no concept of philanthropy, animal welfare. They are also pretty explicitly ethnonationalist. You don’t hear about these things because the Chinese government has banned dissent and walled off its inhabitants.
However, I think the Hong Kong reunification is going better than I’d expect given the 2019 protests. You’d expect mass social upheaval, but people are just either satisfied or moderately dissatisfied.
quantum computing, nuclear fusion
I recently interviewed with them, and one of them said they’re hiring a lot of SWEs as they shift to product. Also many of my friends are currently interviewing with them.
I mean some hard evidence is them currently hiring a lot of software engineers for random product-y things. If AGI was close, wouldn’t they go all in on research and training?
https://www.windowscentral.com/software-apps/sam-altman-ai-will-make-coders-10x-more-productive-not-replace-them
It sounds like they’re getting pretty bearish on capabilities tho
Yes, the likely outcome of a long tariff regime is China replaces the U.S. as the hegemon + AI race leader and they can’t read Lesswrong or EA blogs there so all this work is useless.
Claude 4 feels pretty weak compared to what I’d think Claude 4 would have been a year away. It makes little progress on most benchmarks with a lot of tricks in them to exaggerate performance. Gemini 2.5 pro feels a bit stronger but not that much stronger. (It feels stronger since they didn’t call it Gemini 3, not because it’s particularly stronger than Claude)
Current methods have definitely hit a wall but AGI simultaneously feels pretty close. Strange timeline to be in. I predict progress will be a jump after the next breakthrough.