Amazing post. But I am stuck at the “prediction market does not reflect probability” point. Currently Trump futures sell for 0.36$ and Metaculus predicts a 22% winning chance of Trump winning in 2024. This difference is what one would observe if many people are used these futures contracts for hedging. However, couldn’t I just issue lots of futures contracts to bring the price down? Assuming that my assets are not meaningfully linked to Trump winning, that means 0.36$-0.22$=0.12$ expected return per issued contract.
Niklas Lehmann
Karma: 14
Calling Bullshit—the Cheatsheet
I have read several textbooks on game theory (there are quite a lot of books out there). I found all of them okay but none outstanding. What I did find very useful was the YouTube-Playlist Game Theory 101 by William Spaniel. He also has published a book with the same title on amazon.
Subject: Econometrics
Recommendation: Mastering ’Metrics by Josh Angrist and J.S. Pischke
Reason: The book uniquely explains the intuitive ideas behind econometric methods. There is also a video series by MRU on the book. Other books that I have read on the subject:
- Mostly Harmless Econometrics, by the same authors. Kind of an earlier version of Mastering Metrics, more in depth, less fun and engaging.
- Introductory Econometrics A Modern Approach, by Wooldridge. Excellent for hands-on projects, very detailed, not as intuitive and easy to read as the others, packed with supplementary math, strong focus on different data structures (cross-section data vs. timeline and panel)
- Ökonometrie Eine Einführung (German) , similar to the above but way less content, stronger focus on potential errors and wrong presumptions.
Furthermore I recommend reading The Book of Why (popular science) by Judea Pearl for a greater understanding of causal inference as a whole. The book also delves into the history of causal inference, bayesian networks and artificial intelligence.
Thank you very much for your educated inputs. This definitely nudged me much closer to getting vaccinated.
Since I (or for that matter most people) do not understand the working mechanisms of the vaccines completely, I can not rule out the chance of significant long-term effects.
Macroeconomics: Olivier Blanchards Macroeconomics is a concise, yet in-depth tour of standard macroeconomic theory. I recommend it as a starting point for studying topics such as monetary policy and international trade.