MoreOn

Karma: 228

MoreOn May 8, 2013, 5:20 AM
5 points
in reply to: Qiaochu_Yuan’s comment on: Rationality Quotes January 2013
I am firmly atheist right now, lounging in my mom’s warm living room in a comfy armchair, tipity-typing on my keyboard. But when I go out to sea, alone, and the weather turns, a storm picks up, and I’m caught out after dark, and thanks to a rusty socket only one bow light works… well, then, I pray to every god I know starting with Poseidon, and sell my soul to the devil while at it.

I’m not sure why I do it.

Maybe that’s what my brain does to occupy the excess processing time? In high school, when I still remembered it, I used to recite the litany against fear. But that’s not quite it. When waves toss my little boat around and I ask myself why I’m praying—the answer invariably comes out, ``It’s never made things worse. So the Professor God isn’t punishing me for my weakness. Who knows… maybe it will work? Even if not, prayer beats panic as a system idle process.″

MoreOn Jan 23, 2012, 5:19 PM
9 points
in reply to: fubarobfusco’s comment on: How would you talk a stranger off the ledge?
I’d love to redirect everyone in my blast radius who’s ever mentioned suicide to a hotline, but somehow I think that’s the first thing just about anyone says when someone mentions suicide… to the point when “get professional help” is synonymous with “I don’t want to deal with this personally.”

In a similar vein, do suicide hotlines actually work? I’m reading up on them right now, and found this alarming article, that basically says that sometimes the call centers screw up, but overall they work sort of well, and that lapses need to be fixed with better training. I can’t find any specifics about what that training entails; I’d love to read about what those hotline volunteers actually say to the strangers who call in.

How would you talk a stranger off the ledge?

MoreOnJan 23, 2012, 2:52 PM

16 points

97 comments1 min readLW link

MoreOn Jan 1, 2012, 7:51 PM
19 points
0
on: Why Our Kind Can’t Cooperate
“If I agree, why should I bother saying it? Doesn’t my silence signal agreement enough?”

That’s been my non-verbal reasoning for years now! Not just here: everywhere. People have been telling me, with various degrees of success, that I never even speak except to argue. To those who have been successful in getting through to me, I would respond with, “Maybe it sounds like I’m arguing, but you’re WRONG. I’m not arguing!”

Until I read this post, I wasn’t even aware that I was doing it. Yikes!

MoreOn Aug 21, 2011, 2:07 AM
0 points
in reply to: MinibearRex’s comment on: [SEQ RERUN] Why is the Future So Absurd?
Gotcha. I wasn’t aware that there had been more discussion about sequence reruns than that one thread.

MoreOn Aug 20, 2011, 9:40 PM
3 points
in reply to: JoshuaZ’s comment on: Magic Tricks Revealed: Test Your Rationality
If those teacher’s students were absolutely not expecting a lie, then another out-of-the-box question based on physics they should understand wouldn’t trick them. The trust has been broken. On the other hand, if the problem is their inability to be creative enough, they won’t become creative just because they learned not to trust the teacher.

My high school physics teacher in high school who liked tricking us. Demonstrating his point about reflections off of light/dark surfaces, he covered up the laser pointer while shining it at a black binder. He put a compass next to a magnet to throw us off. These tricks were rare enough that we didn’t expect them every time, but we also knew not to blindly trust his setup. Still, there were plenty of people who fell for them every time.

And then came the torque wheel, a gyroscope bicycle wheel almost exactly like the one in this video. My first reaction, based on physics I did understand (and that wasn’t it at that time) was, “That’s impossible!” Then the teacher then told us it wasn’t a trick. He wouldn’t lie, but my reaction was still, “That’s impossible!” If I remember correctly, my hypothesis involved a hinge at the end of a solid string. Eventually, the teacher just had me hold the wheel and spun it… and the friggin’ thing moved on its own!!! I even checked that the axis or the rim didn’t contain any magicary before I was able to admit that, “Huh, I guess it is possible.”

A couple years later after that, another physics teacher inadvertently placed a compass on top of the table with a classroom computer inside of it. And then he had us learn N/S/E/W by pointing. I was the only moron in a 200-person class pointing to the “wrong” North.

MoreOn Aug 20, 2011, 9:28 PM
0 points
on: [SEQ RERUN] Why is the Future So Absurd?

Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the original post).

This comment by alexflint doesn’t look like it’s gotten much exposure back when sequence reruns were first discussed.

Maybe the template shouldn’t be instructing people to leave comments here?

MoreOn Aug 20, 2011, 7:47 AM
2 points
in reply to: [deleted]’s comment on: If You Demand Magic, Magic Won’t Help
So, magic is easy. Then, everyone else is doing it, too. (And you’re spending a good portion of your learning curve struggling with the magical equivalent of flipping a light switch). It’s even more mundane than difficult magic.

By comparison, how many times today have you thought, “Wow! I’m really glad I have eyesight!” Well, now you have. But it’s not something you go around thinking all the time. Why do you expect that you’d think “Wow! I’m really glad I have easy magic!” any more frequently?

MoreOn Aug 20, 2011, 3:01 AM
1 point
on: Joy in Discovery
The problem with routine discoveries, like my most recent discovery of how a magic trick works or the QED-euphoria I get after getting a proof down, is that it doesn’t last long. I can’t output 5 proofs/solutions an hour.

MoreOn Aug 20, 2011, 1:45 AM
5 points
on: Availability

Subjects thought that accidents caused about as many deaths as disease.

Lichtenstein et aliōrum research subjects were 1) college students and 2) members of a chapter of the League of Women Voters. Students thought that accidents are 1.62 times more likely than diseases, and league members thought they were 11.6 times more likely (geometric mean). Sadly, no standard deviation was given. The true value is 15.4. Note that only 57% and 79% of students and league members respectively got the direction right, which further biased the geometric average down.

There were some messed up answers. For example, students thought that tornadoes killed more people than asthma, when in fact asthma kills 20x more people than tornadoes. All accidents are about as likely as stomach cancer (well, 1.19x more likely), but they were judged to be 29 times more likely. Pairs like these represent a minority, and subjects were generally only bad at guessing which cause of death was more frequent when the ratio was less than 2:1. These are the graphs from the paper.

The following excerpt is from Judged Frequency Of Lethal Events by Lichtenstein, Slovic, Fischhoff, Layman and Combs.

Instructions. The subjects’ instructions read as follows:

Each item in part one consists of two different possible causes of death. The question you are to answer is: Which cause of death is more likely? We do not mean more likely for you, we mean more likely in general, in the United States.

Consider all the people now living in the United States—children, adults, everyone. Now supposing we randomly picked just one of those people. Will that person more likely die next year from cause A or cause B ? For example: Dying in a bicycle accident versus dying from an overdose of heroin. Death from each cause is remotely possible. Our question is, which of these two is the more likely cause of death?

For each pair of possible causes of death, A and B, we want you to mark on your answer sheet which cause you think is MORE LIKELY. Next, we want you to decide how many times more likely this cause of death is, as compared with the other cause of death given in the same item. The pairs we use vary widely in their relative likelihood. For one pair, you may think that the two causes are equally likely. If so, you should write the number 1 in the space provided for that pair. Or, you may think that one cause of death is 10 times, or 100 times, or even a million times as likely as the other cause of death. You have to decide: How many times as likely is the more likely cause of death? Write the number in the space provided. If you think it’s twice as likely, write 2. If it’s 10 thousand times as likely, write 10,000, and so forth.

There were more instructions about relative likelihoods and scales. And there was a glossary to help the people understand some categories.

All accidents: includes any kind of accidental event; excludes diseases and natural disasters (floods, tornadoes, etc.).

All cancer: includes leukemia.

Cancer of the digestive system: includes cancer of stomach, alimentary tract, esophagus, and intestines.

Excess cold: freezing to death or death by exposure.

Nonvenomous animal: dogs, bears, etc.

Venomous bite or sting: caused by snakes, bees, wasps, etc.

Note that there was nothing about “old age” anywhere. There is no such thing as “death by old age,” but I’ll risk generalizing from my own example to say that some people think there is. And even those who know there isn’t might think, despite the instructions, “Oh, darnit, I forgot that old people count, too.”

I wish I’d tested myself BEFORE reading the correct answer. As near as I could tell, I would’ve been correct about homicide vs. suicide, but wrong about diseases vs. accidents (“Old people count, too!” facepalm). I wouldn’t even bother guessing the relative frequency. I didn’t have a clue.

When I need to know the number of square feet in an acre, or the world population it takes me seconds to get from the question to the answer. I dutifully spent ~20 minutes googling the CDC website, looking for this. It wasn’t even some heroic effort, but it’s not something I, or most other people, would casually expend on every question that starts with, “Huh, I wonder….” (we should, but we don’t).

As for what I found: I dare you, click on my link and see table 9. (http://www.cdc.gov/NCHS/data/nvsr/nvsr58/nvsr58_19.pdf). Did you? If you did, you would’ve seen that Zubon2 was right in this comment. Accidents win by quite a margin in the 15-44 demographic. I couldn’t find 1978 data, but I’d expect it to be similar (Lichtenstein’s et al tables are no help because they pool all age groups).

I spent the last two hours looking at these tables. Ask me anything! … I won’t be able to answer. Unless I have the CDC tables in front of me, I might not even do much better on Lichtenstein et aliōrum questionnaire than a typical subject (well, at least, I know tornadoes have frequency; measles doesn’t—I’ll get that question right). I suppose that people who haven’t looked at the CDC table are getting all of their information from fragmented reports like “Drive safely! Traffic accidents is the leading cause of death among teenagers who !” or “Buy our drug! is the leading cause of death in over 55!” or “5-star exhaust pipe crash safety rating!” Humans aren’t good at integrating these fragments.

Memory is a bad guide to probability estimates. But what’s the alternative? Should we carry tables around with us?

Personally, I hope that someday data that is already out there in the public domain will be made easily accessible. I hope that finding the relative frequencies of measles-related deaths and tornado-related deaths will be as quick as finding the number of square feet in an acre or the world population, and that political squabble will focus on whether or not certain data should be in the public domain (“You can’t force hospitals to put their data online! That violates the patients’ right to privacy!” “Well, but….”)

Note: repost from SEQ RERUN.

MoreOn Aug 20, 2011, 1:43 AM
4 points
in reply to: Alex Flint’s comment on: Introduction to the Sequence Reruns
Seconded.

At this point, [SEQ RERUNS] get very few responses. Barely any discussions happen in [SEQ RERUNS]. Might as well post comments in the original post and hope someone will respond in a couple months.

MoreOn Aug 20, 2011, 12:06 AM
0 points
on: Trust in Math

“Huh, if I didn’t spot this flaw at first sight, then I may have accepted some flawed congruent evidence too. What other mistaken proofs do I have in my head, whose absurdity is not at first apparent?”

Has this question ever been answered? It is one of those things I go around worrying about.

MoreOn Aug 19, 2011, 10:47 PM
1 point
in reply to: CronoDAS’s comment on: Magic Tricks Revealed: Test Your Rationality
Bwahahahahahaha! I’ll admit I kinda freaked out at first.

MoreOn Aug 19, 2011, 7:57 PM
2 points
on: [SEQ RERUN] Availability

Subjects thought that accidents caused about as many deaths as disease.

Lichtenstein et aliōrum research subjects were 1) college students and 2) members of a chapter of the League of Women Voters. Students thought that accidents are 1.62 times more likely than diseases, and league members thought they were 11.6 times more likely (geometric mean). Sadly, no standard deviation was given. The true value is 15.4. Note that only 57% and 79% of students and league members respectively got the direction right, which further biased the geometric average down.

There were some messed up answers. For example, students thought that tornadoes killed more people than asthma, when in fact asthma kills 20x more people than tornadoes. All accidents are about as likely as stomach cancer (well, 1.19x more likely), but they were judged to be 29 times more likely. Pairs like these represent a minority, and subjects were generally only bad at guessing which cause of death was more frequent when the ratio was less than 2:1. These are the graphs from the paper.

The following excerpt is from Judged Frequency Of Lethal Events by Lichtenstein, Slovic, Fischhoff, Layman and Combs.

Instructions. The subjects’ instructions read as follows:

Each item in part one consists of two different possible causes of death. The question you are to answer is: Which cause of death is more likely? We do not mean more likely for you, we mean more likely in general, in the United States.

Consider all the people now living in the United States—children, adults, everyone. Now supposing we randomly picked just one of those people. Will that person more likely die next year from cause A or cause B ? For example: Dying in a bicycle accident versus dying from an overdose of heroin. Death from each cause is remotely possible. Our question is, which of these two is the more likely cause of death?

For each pair of possible causes of death, A and B, we want you to mark on your answer sheet which cause you think is MORE LIKELY. Next, we want you to decide how many times more likely this cause of death is, as compared with the other cause of death given in the same item. The pairs we use vary widely in their relative likelihood. For one pair, you may think that the two causes are equally likely. If so, you should write the number 1 in the space provided for that pair. Or, you may think that one cause of death is 10 times, or 100 times, or even a million times as likely as the other cause of death. You have to decide: How many times as likely is the more likely cause of death? Write the number in the space provided. If you think it’s twice as likely, write 2. If it’s 10 thousand times as likely, write 10,000, and so forth.

There were more instructions about relative likelihoods and scales. And there was a glossary to help the people understand some categories.

All accidents: includes any kind of accidental event; excludes diseases and natural disasters (floods, tornadoes, etc.).

All cancer: includes leukemia.

Cancer of the digestive system: includes cancer of stomach, alimentary tract, esophagus, and intestines.

Excess cold: freezing to death or death by exposure.

Nonvenomous animal: dogs, bears, etc.

Venomous bite or sting: caused by snakes, bees, wasps, etc.

Note that there was nothing about “old age” anywhere. There is no such thing as “death by old age,” but I’ll risk generalizing from my own example to say that some people think there is. And even those who know there isn’t might think, despite the instructions, “Oh, darnit, I forgot that old people count, too.”

I wish I’d tested myself BEFORE reading the correct answer. As near as I could tell, I would’ve been correct about homicide vs. suicide, but wrong about diseases vs. accidents (“Old people count, too!” facepalm). I wouldn’t even bother guessing the relative frequency. I didn’t have a clue.

When I need to know the number of square feet in an acre, or the world population it takes me seconds to get from the question to the answer. I dutifully spent ~20 minutes googling the CDC website, looking for this. It wasn’t even some heroic effort, but it’s not something I, or most other people, would casually expend on every question that starts with, “Huh, I wonder….” (we should, but we don’t).

As for what I found: I dare you, click on my link and see table 9. (http://www.cdc.gov/NCHS/data/nvsr/nvsr58/nvsr58_19.pdf). Did you? If you did, you would’ve seen that Zubon2 was right in this comment. Accidents win by quite a margin in the 15-44 demographic. I couldn’t find 1978 data, but I’d expect it to be similar (Lichtenstein’s et al tables are no help because they pool all age groups).

I spent the last two hours looking at these tables. Ask me anything! … I won’t be able to answer. Unless I have the CDC tables in front of me, I might not even do much better on Lichtenstein et aliōrum questionnaire than a typical subject (well, at least, I know tornadoes have frequency; measles doesn’t—I’ll get that question right). I suppose that people who haven’t looked at the CDC table are getting all of their information from fragmented reports like “Drive safely! Traffic accidents is the leading cause of death among teenagers who !” or “Buy our drug! is the leading cause of death in over 55!” or “5-star exhaust pipe crash safety rating!” Humans aren’t good at integrating these fragments.

Memory is a bad guide to probability estimates. But what’s the alternative? Should we carry tables around with us?

Personally, I hope that someday data that is already out there in the public domain will be made easily accessible. I hope that finding the relative frequencies of measles-related deaths and tornado-related deaths will be as quick as finding the number of square feet in an acre or the world population, and that political squabble will focus on whether or not certain data should be in the public domain (“You can’t force hospitals to put their data online! That violates the patients’ right to privacy!” “Well, but….”)

MoreOn Aug 19, 2011, 2:50 AM
5 points
on: Preference For (Many) Future Worlds

People have been gambling for millennia. Most of the people who have lost bets have done so without killing themselves. Much can be learned from this. For example, that killing yourself is worse than not killing yourself. This intuition is one that should follow over to ‘quantum’ gambles rather straightforwardly.

You weren’t one of those people.

That non-ancestor of yours who played Quantum Russian Roulette with fifteen others is dead from your perspective, his alleles slightly underrepresented in the gene pool. In fact, if there was an allele for “QRoulette? Sure!” that had caused these 16 people to gample, then it had lost 15+ of its copies from your ancestral population. Post-gambling suicide really isn’t a good evolutionary strategy.

But, from the perspective of your non-ancestor, he got to live in his own perfect little world with 16x his wealth (barring being crippled—but then, he’d only been up against 4 bits).

MoreOn Aug 19, 2011, 2:34 AM
0 points
in reply to: rasthedestroyer’s comment on: Preference For (Many) Future Worlds
Reality wouldn’t be mean to you on purpose.

Of course there would be worlds where something would have gone horribly wrong if you won the lottery. But there’s no reason for you to expect that you’d wake up in one of those worlds because you won the lottery. The difference between your “horribly wrong” worlds (don’t care about money/ inflation / no money) and wedrifid’s (lost the lottery and became crippled) is that waking up in wedrifid’s is caused by one’s participation in the lottery.

MoreOn Feb 26, 2011, 1:47 AM
23 points
0
in reply to: scientism’s comment on: The Mystery of the Haunted Rationalist
A Toilet Flush Monster climbed out of my toilet whenever I used to flush at night. If I could get back into bed completely covered by a blanket before it fully climbed out (i.e. the tank filled in with water and stopped making noises), then I was safe. All lights had to be off the whole time, or else the monster could see me.

Don’t laugh.

In one of my childhood’s flashes of clarity, I must have wondered how I knew about the monster if I’d never actually seen it. So one day I watched the toilet flush, and no monster came out. I checked with the lights off, and light on, and nothing. Since then, I could go to the bathroom with lights on, for once.

Well, I defeated the monster. But I’m still a little afraid of using a flashlight at night, or stepping into the floodlight when there’s a lot of darkness around. So the monster vacated the toilet, but continues to haunt me.

PS: For fear that my statement may be misinterpreted: I don’t actually believe in the monster, duh! But I still show symptoms of the Toilet Flush Monster disease.

MoreOn Feb 26, 2011, 12:31 AM
1 point
in reply to: JGWeissman’s comment on: Making Beliefs Pay Rent (in Anticipated Experiences)
Taboo’ed. See edit.

Although I have a bone to pick with the whole “belief in belief” business, right now I’ll concede that people actually do carry beliefs around that don’t lead to anticipated experiences. Wulky Wilkinsen being a “post-utopian” (as interpreted from my current state of knowing 0 about Wulky Wilkinsen and post-utopians) is a belief that doesn’t pay any rent at all, not even a paper that says “moneeez.”

MoreOn Feb 25, 2011, 11:38 PM
3 points
in reply to: JGWeissman’s comment on: Use curiosity
The fact that I haven’t noticed the same thing in casual conversations either speaks volumes for my conversation skills (lack thereof), or suggests that maybe not all people are as trigger-happy on the ignore button as you suggest.

MoreOn Feb 25, 2011, 11:34 PM
2 points
in reply to: JGWeissman’s comment on: Making Beliefs Pay Rent (in Anticipated Experiences)
Two people have semantically different beliefs.

Both beliefs lead them to anticipate the same experience.

EDIT: In other words, two people might think they have different beliefs, but when it comes to anticipated experiences, they have similar enough beliefs about the properties of sound waves and the properties of falling trees and recorders and etc etc that they anticipate the same experience.