Big thanks to Amanda, Owain, and others at Ought for their work on this!
My overall forecast is pretty low confidence — particularly with respect to the time parameter.
Snapshot is here: https://elicit.ought.org/builder/uIF9O5fIp (Please ignore any other snapshots in my name, which were submitted in error)
My calculations are in this spreadsheet
This (2015) post is an attempt to answer a similar question: FAI Research Constraints and AGI Side Effects
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Big thanks to Amanda, Owain, and others at Ought for their work on this!
My overall forecast is pretty low confidence — particularly with respect to the time parameter.
Snapshot is here: https://elicit.ought.org/builder/uIF9O5fIp (Please ignore any other snapshots in my name, which were submitted in error)
My calculations are in this spreadsheet