Remmelt and I have made a bet at $5k:$25k odds on if there will be an AI market crash by the end of 2026 with a crash being designated if 2⁄3 of the following criteria are met:
OpenAI 2025 or 2026 yearly revenue is below $1.6 billion.
Anthropic 2025 or 2026 yearly revenue is below $400 million.
Nvidia revenue for any quarter in the range of Q3 2025 to Q4 2026 under the ‘data center’ category (covering the same revenue items, even if renamed/moved to something else) is below $8.5 billion.
Source for the first two criteria will be public statements by the companies or by credible reporting. Nvidia data centre revenue will be as reported by Nvidia.
We will make a formal post on it shortly
This is a great post. Good eye for catching this and making the connections here. I think I expect to see more “cutting corners” like this though I’m not sure what to do about it since I don’t think internally it will feel like corners are being cut rather than necessary updates that are only obvious in hindsight.