I’ve been a bit confused about doubling rate. First, I noticed that many numbers (e.g. Wikipedia) are calculating how long it took to double, instead of projecting forward using e.g. yesterday’s increase. Early on this led to misleading numbers, but recently the US has been steady around 2-3 days using both methods.
However, I’m guessing that raw doubling rates depend a lot on testing, and that the US should expect to have a faster-than-actual doubling rate until our testing catches up. So I lean towards Trevor’s number of 5 days.
Did you end up finding one besides the MIDAS network, or develop your own? I’m assembling a parameter doc for inputs to a rough model that accounts for ventilator & hospital bed capacity, since it seems like we’re lacking that.
I encourage folks to add parameters w/ citations to the doc, I’ll be active on it for the next few days.
If anyone knows of models that incorporate actual healthcare capacity, please share!