I found a link. This is intriguing. However, is it even possible now that Eliezer is 2 for 2 that somebody could believe that there is not a chance they will let him out?
Also, I really want to be a gatekeeper.
josh
Karma: 48
Eliezer’s page is blocked at my work (peronal website). I can’t wait to find out what in the hell you people are talking about.
Bravo!
Is there any reason that some values shouldn’t be lexicographically ordered?
semantic difference, I think. Isn’t the distinction just “possible ways this world could be” versus “which of all possible worlds is this one.” Is there a meaningful difference?
“Feeling good is not the point.”
but it sure does feel good.
“So… Should it be obvious that the nth difference is n factorial? I’m afraid I don’t have intuitive knowledge of all the properties of the factorial function.”
I don’t remember writing this. Did somebody else write this using the same handle as me or did I write this and forget it?
LG, Doesn’t that mean you like the post, specifically becuase it appeals to confirmation bias, one of the known biases we should be seeking to overcome?
“So can we learn to recognize the sound of a “cult cooler”, cooling down the cultishness, and distinguish it from a fake recording of such? Or at least invent a cultometer, so we can check our cultempature?”
We could just ask our perfect Baysian leaders. They know all and understand all.
My priors are not what they were a week ago. Thank you for the fascinating posts.
“This leads me to assume that each organelle in every living cell had to have an intelligent designer.”
but each organ within an organism didn’t? What’s the difference?
Eliezer,
You are aware that you are exceptional, aren’t you? If I remember correctly, that question is more difficult than anything on the math SAT on which very few high schoolers get perfect scores. I agree with you about not understanding what it means to be “bad” at math. This makes it difficult to assess when one simple problem is more difficult than another. I may be wrong, but that question certainly feels like it would be difficult for most high schoolers let alone elementary schoolers.
You thought elementary school students wouldn’t be completely overwhelmed by a question like this?:
“1% of women at age forty who participate in routine screening have breast cancer. 80% of women with breast cancer will get positive mammographies. 9.6% of women without breast cancer will also get positive mammographies. A woman in this age group had a positive mammography in a routine screening. What is the probability that she actually has breast cancer?
What do you think the answer is? If you haven’t encountered this kind of problem before, please take a moment to come up with your own answer before continuing.”
Seriously, even down to the use of big words like “mammographies”.
“Seeing the world as if you were dead, as if you were not there to see it, seeing the world as it would be without your seeing it.”
This is an analogy. You might as well say we couldn’t attempt objectivity without “veils” (of ignorance). Without the existence of veils, such a concept is unthinkable.
Does anybody really think of objectivity as seeing the world as if you were dead?
“I for one do not see what the point would be in acquiring knowledge if I never died”
? Why do you acquire knowledge now? I do it because it’s fun/interesting/useful toward accomplishing some goal.
When initially presenting the question, he doesn’t mention a sample of 100,000 people. I assumed we were using the sample of all people. My gooch.
Sebastian,
I know a jazz musician who is not an accountant.
I would say, “paint a picture”, but then, I’m nice.
Doug,
from the before time. from the long long ago.
Do many people see capitalism as an end rather than a very good means?