1) While the base rate for sexual abuse, by a sibling, of a toddler is already extremely low (sexual abuse of children is somewhat rare. ‘Abuse of toddlers’ and ‘abuse by siblings’ are both much rarer subsets), the claim that both of her brothers were abusing a sibling toddler makes it drastically rarer. Even for identical twins, more mundane sexual preferences such as homosexuality only have ~33% correlation. Both her brothers having the outrageously rare sexual proclivity to abuse a toddler sister is close to astronomical odds. At that point we’re instead considering odds of something in their home environment being profoundly broken.
2) The claims of sexual abuse seem to stem from Sam’s childhood. In the hypothetical event that the claims are truthful and something was so broken in their home that these sorts of events unfolded from multiple children, that’s a complex situation of neglect with even the abusive children being victims of neglect or abuse. In such a circumstance, it would be a critical distinction whether those behaviors continued into recent years or whether they grew up in neglectful/abusive circumstances and have since found a path out of those patterns.
3) There are ways her narrative could have been suppressed without it being evidence of abuse:
I’ve worked with victims of sexual abuse since 2016 and this narrative strikes me as not impossible but also not likely. It bears strong resemblance to someone with Borderline Personality Disorder that I once encountered before I became a therapist. For years I and many others supported her and her many narratives about all the abuses her family put her through her entire life. Only later did I encounter her sister who had strong trauma about any contact with her and told me how that woman had basically ruined all their lives. In the years, following, I was able to identify many independent sources that her narrative had been made up and that she had put many others besides her family through similar patterns of her being the psychological and reputational abuser (and clearly a victim in her own right—her sickness was severe, and it hardly makes sense to hold her responsible for what she did).
When libel is being spread and when a sick family member does harm to herself as well as her family, many will want to suppress that narrative to the extent they are able—even people with much less influence than Sam. If they either wield power and influence or they are able to provide a credible range of people testifying to the poor health of the person and the untruth of the person, it’s plausible that moderators will attempt to assist. (Clearly a suppression could also be a bad-faith action to hide abuse. Just pointing out that I’ve seen legitimate victims of family members with poor mental health act in this way, and basically everyone involved in the situation acting in support of that as reasonable measures.)
3 factors I haven’t seen highlighted:
1) While the base rate for sexual abuse, by a sibling, of a toddler is already extremely low (sexual abuse of children is somewhat rare. ‘Abuse of toddlers’ and ‘abuse by siblings’ are both much rarer subsets), the claim that both of her brothers were abusing a sibling toddler makes it drastically rarer. Even for identical twins, more mundane sexual preferences such as homosexuality only have ~33% correlation. Both her brothers having the outrageously rare sexual proclivity to abuse a toddler sister is close to astronomical odds. At that point we’re instead considering odds of something in their home environment being profoundly broken.
2) The claims of sexual abuse seem to stem from Sam’s childhood. In the hypothetical event that the claims are truthful and something was so broken in their home that these sorts of events unfolded from multiple children, that’s a complex situation of neglect with even the abusive children being victims of neglect or abuse. In such a circumstance, it would be a critical distinction whether those behaviors continued into recent years or whether they grew up in neglectful/abusive circumstances and have since found a path out of those patterns.
3) There are ways her narrative could have been suppressed without it being evidence of abuse:
I’ve worked with victims of sexual abuse since 2016 and this narrative strikes me as not impossible but also not likely. It bears strong resemblance to someone with Borderline Personality Disorder that I once encountered before I became a therapist. For years I and many others supported her and her many narratives about all the abuses her family put her through her entire life. Only later did I encounter her sister who had strong trauma about any contact with her and told me how that woman had basically ruined all their lives. In the years, following, I was able to identify many independent sources that her narrative had been made up and that she had put many others besides her family through similar patterns of her being the psychological and reputational abuser (and clearly a victim in her own right—her sickness was severe, and it hardly makes sense to hold her responsible for what she did).
When libel is being spread and when a sick family member does harm to herself as well as her family, many will want to suppress that narrative to the extent they are able—even people with much less influence than Sam. If they either wield power and influence or they are able to provide a credible range of people testifying to the poor health of the person and the untruth of the person, it’s plausible that moderators will attempt to assist. (Clearly a suppression could also be a bad-faith action to hide abuse. Just pointing out that I’ve seen legitimate victims of family members with poor mental health act in this way, and basically everyone involved in the situation acting in support of that as reasonable measures.)